Comments on: Mensoian: The Roadmap to Normalization Is a Roadmap to Oblivion for Armenia

By: Armanen

Armanen — Fri, 22 May 2009 18:01:09 +0000

The economist is over rated and has a pro turk bias. I do not pay much attention to what they have to say. At one time they were a libertarian newspaper, now it’s something else.

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 20 May 2009 20:18:42 +0000

I guess our friend Mr. Jason Kopeczk with much of regret lives in Disney Land or very smart individual, which in my opinion the second one, is more valid.
What do you mean by saying “If Turkey and Armenia establishes strong ties with trust where neither side is worried about investing in each other” Are we talking about regional politics or a local college football game! Since when, and please illuminate us with examples in that region when “Political Trust” worked! You need to study the region history, politics, economics and politics before getting to investment and banking. Armenia’s main and always MUST #1 issue should be “National Security” then life and health of the people of Armenia, as well as on the prospect of sustainable development for the country will follow.
Again, I can’t be more agreeing with the main article and follow-up of Armanen, excellent analysis. If, we learn to listen and learn, willingness to respect our differences, in addition to educating ourselves and others, then we are in the path of salvation.

Thank you ALL for sharing your opinion since it adds to my knowledge.
Also I like to share recent article written on “economist” magazine, if you have not seen it already:
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13577983&source=hptextfeature

By: Armanen

Armanen — Wed, 20 May 2009 19:13:57 +0000

Jason,

You are using a model that would seemingly work in the case of two normal countries and in a much less hostile region, not just in relations to Armenia but the conflict in Georgia and the Russian Caucasus. What you say may be an outcome, but the point is that based on the geopolitical nature of the Caucasus, there should be an in depth study made by the RA government before we consider opening up the border with turkey. And this isn’t even getting into the issue of turkish violation of international law by closing the borders, or the legality of the Kars Treaty, etc.

There are few Armenians that wouldn’t want Armenia’s economy to develop the way you outlined above, but it’s a very complex issue and the RA government, if it has not done so already, needs to do research and make it available to the public before any border openings.

By: Jason Kopeczki

Jason Kopeczki — Wed, 20 May 2009 06:43:12 +0000

I don’t agree with any of the scenarios this article points out. The economy just doesn’t play out as described in the article. Many examples can be found with a little research. Yes it is true that the traffic will be mostly one way from Turkey to Armenia. With the heavy traffic there comes major capital, investments, projects, constructions and credits. If turkey wants to capitalize on the Armenian market first they have to increase the buying power of the consumer there. Banks will provide credits, Turkish companies will have to invest in distribution centers, service centers, constructions, manufacturing facilities, and factories to cut down on transportation costs etc. Real estate values will double if not triple in the main areas. Do you think people from Turkey will relocate to Armenia to take advantages of all the jobs these activities will create, I don’t think so. Unemployment will be the lowest Armenia historically ever experienced. People will make more money than they ever did and they will turn around and spend it by buying things. If Turkey and Armenia establishes strong ties with trust where neither side is worried about investing in each other, I believe Armenia can quadruple its GDP under 10 years. You can see many examples of this scenario studying other regions.

By: Armanen

Armanen — Tue, 19 May 2009 17:17:23 +0000

H. Garabedian,
The above article does a fine job of illustrating the dangers of opening the borders without careful analysis of its ramifications on Armenian society, economy and national security. A few days ago an Armenian political scientist also gave an interview about the subject and reminded people that capital has no motherland, his point was that if we have open borders, some Armenian oligrachs (if not all) may decide to invest more in turkey since there is a bigger market there. This article also makes the same case, which is quite legitmate if one stops to think about it. In normal circumstances it would not be a big deal, but Armenia’s region is not ‘normal’ and as long as turkey does not admit to Genocide (I’m not even talking about making reparations), and we have a cornered and even more barbaric neighbor to the east, Armenia can’t believe that normal socio-political priciples apply to it.

I would advise you to talk a look at related articles here, if you have not done so already. http://www.ararat-center.org/index.php?p=30&l=eng

By: H.Garabedian

H.Garabedian — Tue, 19 May 2009 12:14:14 +0000

Armanen,

I am American by nationality–that is a citizen or national of the USA. Five generations of our family have lived in the US. Two generations were genocide survivors and 3 born here.

So, I am an American with Armenian lineage back to Khapert in Western Armenia.

None of which supports or detracts from the strength of the represented perspective.

Tom, is right about the lack of comprehensive studies about the economic impacts of opening the border. Generally, it is accepted that an increase in the flow of capital and goods stimulates the economy. I see no reason for this not to apply in Armenia.

By: Armanen

Armanen — Tue, 19 May 2009 06:44:31 +0000

garabedian, are you turkish or Armenian?

By: Tom

Tom — Tue, 19 May 2009 04:17:17 +0000

There is no economical or scientific research/studies had been done to see what would be the “real effect” of opening the boarders could bring to Armenian’s economy, social life and for most important part “national security”!!!

When government of Turkey “still” is in active denial of “Genocide”, Armenia “still” is engaged in active “war” with both eastern and western neighbors.

No data for let’s say another 6 months exist for supporting the causes and the effects of “Boarder Opening”!…

I’m wondering if Armenia’s government has any agenda on this important issue or they are governing a “country” on a “day-to-day” operation bases.

All Armenian organizations (including ANAC, Henchkina, ARF, Ramkaver) “MUST” be involved with this at highest level possible since looks like Armenia’s officials have no clear vision.

Diaspora Armenians can’t wait and love to see their home land refurnished with economical progress, but there is a price to be paid for. Also, Armenia’s progress is less burden on Diaspora which then could focus on their own internal problems.

So, Mr. Garabedian, with all do respect, please be more sencetive on your analyses when it comes to our effoert, energy, money and time.

-Tom

By: H.Garabedian

H.Garabedian — Tue, 19 May 2009 02:15:00 +0000

Yes, the foreign policy of our country (USA) does support Turkey joining the EU. Then again, so does the current national leadership of Armenia and the previous Armenian administration.

Of course, opening the border to the west will help the Armenian economy. Armenia understands that–the USA understands that–Turkey understands that and so does Azerbaijan. That why Azerbaijan wants it kept closed. If Azerbaijan believed opening the border and normalization would be the ruination of Armenia–Azerbaijan would have freed Turkey from its commitment and the border would have been openned long ago.

In absence of evidence to the contrary, I am accepting the statements of Armenia’s national leadership that they are not abandoning NK.

It seems to me, that Armenians in Armenia are for more supportive of opening the border and normalization with Turkey than those people of Armenian lineage living in California or Massachusetts or France etc.. Those recommending that the people of Armenia tough it out–ought to move their bravado to Armenia.

If the border opens and the Armenian economy strengthens, it is likely that diasporan dependence and influence will decrease. One can only wonder just how much this factor lies at the base of the objections from diasporan political factions to opening the border.

Keeping the border closed–keeping Armenia isolated–keeping Armenia a ward of diasporan genorsity and Russian economic support is the real formula for oblivion.

By: Tro

Tro — Tue, 19 May 2009 00:51:29 +0000

Yes, yes and yes. This article says it all. This is what the reality is. Armenia needs to have an aggressive foreign policy, not a defeatist one.