With pup-Turk (Azeri) corpses piling up, the boneheads in Baku are probably scratching their heads as to what might be their next steps.
It seems the ten day span over which small bands of Azerbaijan’s armed forces have briefly breached Armenian lines (both republics’ borders) is the culmination of the ever increasing number of sniper and other attacks initiated by Baku. Add to this a new Minister of Defense occupying the office who seems to want to strut his stuff. Of course, we can’t forget the many years’ worth of military buildup, including drones. Interestingly, two of those drones seem to have been downed by Artsakh’s forces in recent weeks.
But all this is for naught. By most accounts, a serious escalation in hostilities is not anticipated by analysts. The Armenian side is attributing this senseless loss of life on both sides to Baku’s standard operating procedures—create tension ahead of upcoming meetings to abort any hope of meaningful progress in negotiations.
But there are some interesting observations to be made.
The normally bland Eduard Nalbandian, Foreign Minister of the Republic of Armenia actually seems to have developed some energy. The U.S. Department of State issues a typical, bloodless, statement, along with the OSCE and UN. I suggest they read “A Picture Worth a Thousand Words,” which appeared in Asbarez. A 15-year old living in the border village of Baghanis, Armenia sketched his dream of amity between Armenians and Azeris. It profoundly moved this teenager’s camp counselors. Perhaps it will knock some sense into the “diplomats” who regularly call on both sides to desist from escalation and hostilities, despite ONE side being the consistent and persistent aggressor.
But the Azeri assaults are not limited to the battlefield. A few days ago, an Azeri news source ran an item that stated an Armenian reporter who is “close to” the military had written that Armenians lost dozens of soldiers in these last rounds of fighting and that the Armenian side was suppressing this news. It turned out to be a complete fabrication, nothing of the sort had been written. Then, we also have Timothy Garton Ash speaking up on this issue. You might recall this is the British political writer and (conservative) Hoover Institution associate who was a strong voice against France’s Genocide denial laws that failed to pass. It may be that some of the money Baku is spending on public relations may actually be paying off in the form of getting their fantasies served up to a broader worldwide audience.
Perhaps it’s time to simplify life for both our republics by creating a third Armenian republic. Please see the accompanying map from Artsakh’s Washington, D.C. office’s website. I have drawn a blue line that runs the shortest distance from the Mingechaur (Mingachevir) reservoir’s (a body of water created in the 1950s by the damming of the Kura River) southerly side the current border of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. I suggest driving the Azeris back to that line.
It would reduce (by about seven times, by way of a very rough visual estimate) the length of the borders that Armenians would have to defend against Azeri incursions. Not only that, It would give Armenians control over a stretch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, garnering handsome transit fees, perhaps taken in kind as oil. It would also put one of the three rail-routes from Azerbaijan to the north under Armenian control. Plus, this would give our side even more leverage over Baku from a water supply/flood control/electricity production perspective. The newly liberated territories could be constituted as the Armenian Republic of Cantsag (Gandsak) (currently referred to in the Turkified name Gyanja). Such a development might make the boneheads in Baku cool off for another twenty years.
Of course this doesn’t address the problem of increased (likely Turkish assisted) Azeri military activity from Nakhichevan. But that’s an issue for another article.
What do you think? Should we initiate a campaign to convince the authorities in Stepanakert and Yerevan to teach the pup-Turks this particular border-busting lesson?
Garen Yegparian
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If driving the Azeris back to that particular line will greatly reduce the length of the borders that the Armenians would have to defend against Azeri incursions, then it should definitely be pursued. As a matter of fact, any sort of military action against the Azeris that would greatly benefit the Armenians should always be pursued; otherwise, it’ll end up being the same story over and over again with Azeri terrorist raids and sniper shootings against Armenians on the other side of the border. And, as we all know by now, that phony, deceitful OSCE Minsk group which pretends to be committed to peace, will never condemn Azerbaijan for its persistent acts of aggression against Armenia and Artsakh. Therefore, the Armenians have no other choice but to defend themselves and use force against the terrorist state of Azerbaijan. Anything that the Armenian military forces can do to make their situation more secure, they should always do. The problem however, is how to go about persuading the incompetent President Sargsyan to follow this path and become more aggressive against Azerbaijan’s persistent policy of aggression against the two Armenian republics.
as the enemy arms itself with more modern weapons and their arrogance grows with the bellicose and suicidal actions it is only a matter of time for more bloodshed, I do hope this time Baku and the oilfields will be occupied.
Mr. Yegparian:
You posed a question to the readers of AW, so I will answer in two parts.
To provide the proper context for my diatribe that will follow shortly, by your leave, I will remind readers of ArmenianWeekly, of what you have previously written about the present leadership of RoA, whom you are exhorting to _initiate_ major armed conflict, which will undoubtedly grow into a war, and major bloodshed: judging by the last NKR war, hundreds, if not thousands, of Armenian young men will be KIA and WIA, many maimed for life.
The reason reminding AW readers is relevant is because you are proposing a campaign to ‘convince’ the authorities in …Yerevan.
You have apparently forgotten that you have labeled those very same authorities ‘crooks’ (your word), and labeled them ‘illegitimate’ (paraphrased).
Is it then reasonable to try to convince someone of anything whom you have a-priori publicly insulted ?
Here are the two articles:
http://asbarez.com/122098/arrogant-erdogan-bonehead-boehner-same-old-sarkisian/
April 18th, 2014.
{ Then we have Serzh Sarkisian, the president of the Republic of Armenia (RoA)}
{ Let’s turn up the heat on these crooks so they either start behaving or depart the public stage.}
http://asbarez.com/108442/bleak-bright/
February 22nd, 2013.
{In Yerevan, we have the bleakness of a stolen election, politely and preemptively, of course, but stolen nevertheless.}
Now I have some questions for you, Sir:
1.Have you ever been to the LOC of NKR or RoA*
2.Do you have any sons or daughters** currently serving in the military of either NKR or RoA.
3.Have you ever served in the military of NKR or RoA.
4.Did you participate in the NKR war (1991-1994).
5.If and when war starts to create a 3rd Armenian republic in the Caucasus, do you pledge to go and fight on the frontlines ?
I will answer the original question and address your ‘boneheaded’ plan in the next post.
—-
* Shortly after the recent attacks began (Jul 28), civilian leadership of NKR and RoA went to the LOC and spend the night with the young sons of the Armenian nation. (I hate calling them ‘troops’: they wear a uniform, but are the sons of a set of parents who spent years raising them with a lot of hard work and sacrifice)
** Armenia does not draft women, but allows them to volunteer.
And oh yeah, the ones who volunteer are no desk-warriors: they will kick invadonomad butt when ordered to do so.
Take a look:
http://www.demotix.com/photo/839196/armenias-independence-day-parade
I agree with Avery,
We should not sort of be fooled into ,US TRIGGERING THE WAR IN NK…
Let the Axerbeijanis-Turkbeijanis(like you say) do so first. But…….
I am all for getting our officers and sub-officers…sargeants? allowed to keep arms at home-when there.Also like when ex commandante of the NK Jogads wrote, have all adults on border areas,whether in RA, or Artsakh armed and keep them at home( I would prefer if we had them carry Israeli ¨Guzzi¨¨isit ? type sub machine guns…
Armenians(you inclusive) must know we shall not be left (tranquillo) by Turkbeijanis..all Minsk OSCE efforts notwithstanding.These turkbeijanis,alas, only understand the weapon language…AGAIN, we should stay calm and put,BUT WELL ARMED to the teeth so to say. I liked very much our Defense Minsitre Syran Ohanian´s recent comment that border between Karvajar(kelbajar ) and RA should be mined……
best Hasgcoghin
The Azeris are using Russian and Israeli weapons.
Russia says it is an ally of Armenia, but it has refused to condemn the Azeri attacks.
Russia wants to see a war that will destroy the oil and gas pipelines that go to Georgia and Turkey, and also Azeri energy infrastructure, and wants to drag Armenians and Azeris into it.
Strongly disagree!!! The idea of “drawing Azeri’s back” and expanding NK territory is extremely irresponsible and will drag Armenia into an unnecessary messy war against a well armed enemy who is backed up by all the oil thirsty countries of the world.This proposal will needlessly endanger soldiers, will claim many innocent lives, displace civilians and will earn Armenia the ire of the international community. It will not serve our cause and will only allow Azerbaijan to portray us as aggressor. Keep in mind that Azerbaijan has oil and the west will never ever go against them on our behalf, especially if we are viewed as an aggressor. This idea is bad no only morally and also strategically and politically. Look at what is going on in the world, especially Middle East. Do we want that mess in Armenia? It is insane to even propose such an option, especially after acknowledging that “a serious escalation of the conflict is not anticipated by most analysts”. We need to be steadfast on non-violence, not give in to provocations and insist on a peaceful political resolution of the conflict.
We don’t need another war. However, if it ever happens, Armenians should liberate additional territories as shown on the map. However, instead of calling it an independent republic of Gandzak, an older Armenian name of historical significance could be recalled from the dustbin of history, Utik.
Mr. Yegparian,
A little while ago, I happened to speak about your latest article to a relative of mine who fought in the 1991-1994 Artsakh War and currently has a son serving in the Artsakh Republic Defense Army. Anyway, he liked that particular plan you suggested and believes that the combination of the Armenia/Artsakh military forces would easily be able to drive the Azeris back to that blue line and even further back. In his own words, he was saying that numerous Armenian lives would of course be lost as a result of such a military action; however, Armenian lives are already being lost as a result of Azerbaijani terrorist raids and sniper shootings, and will continue to be lost as a result of further terrorist raids and sniper shootings by Azerbaijan, which has never been condemned by the OSCE Minsk group. Therefore, in his own words again, he believes that the Armenia/Artsakh military forces need to take matters into their own hands in order to simplify their current situation and make it more secure. And if driving the Azeris back to that blue line can be achieved by the Armenia/Artsakh military forces which would greatly reduce the length of the borders that the Armenians would have to defend against Azeri incursions, then it should be an objective to go after. However, in his own words again, the boneheaded President Sargsyan will never go for such an idea and will instead stick to his usual agenda of “no action,” and as usual, attempt to please the OSCE Minsk group who doesn’t even care about the human rights of his brothers and sisters in Artsakh.
Apologies to Mr Garen Yegparian for my Zangezur style bluntness but this is the most outrageously irresponsible proposal I’ve ever heard. This is no game. The people of Karabakh are not aggressors. And the last thing they need is another reason for Azerbaijanis to claim territorial integrity and other bull$&@£ they spew daily. Let’s refrain from war games and get real.
When a discussion opens with pejorative labels such as pup turks and boneheads, it is hard to believe what follows is objective, a complete account of material considerations and does not suffer the content value degradation of conformational bias.
PART2
This should be common knowledge, but in case people forgot: the leadership of both NKR and RoA, civilian and military, have seen war, have participated in war, have fought in war, and some have bled in war. To wit, heroic RoA DM Seyran Ohanyan, a Colonel General, lost a leg during the war. He was also one of the 4 frontline storming-group commanders during the epic Liberation of Shushi.
Pres Sargsyan was not a frontline commander. But he did participate in the NKR liberation war in military leadership capacity, and thus put his life at risk.
NKR DM Movses Hakobyan, a Lieutenant General, also participated in the war, fighting at the front.
NKR Pres Bako Sahakyan, was also a commander during the war.
Plus, there are dozens and dozens of experienced captains who are not on active on duty, but who are still actively ‘thinking’ about these things (e.g. Major General Arkady Ter-Tadevosyan).
Pretty much every fighting age male in Artsakh, and lots of women too, participated in the liberation of their ancestral lands from the Turkbaijani invadonomads.
They know the lay of the land, who and what the Turkbaijanis are, what they are capable of, how they think…..a lot better than those of us living in SoCal.
So the last thing the leadership of NKR or RoA need is advice from keyboard warriors or armchair generals like you and me about warfare and liberation of Armenian lands.
In fact, DM Movses Hakobyan when asked by reporters, said that if Azerbaijan invades in full force, and his civilian leadership gives permission, NKR Army will reach Kur river in a few days with little trouble. It may or may not be hyperbole. But there should be no doubt that both military and civilian leadership of RoA & NKR have been thinking about and planning for that exact possibility.
Just in case.
{“ It would give Armenians control over a stretch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, garnering handsome transit fees, perhaps”}
Sir, you actually think British Petroleum, read the Government of Great Britain (and of course US*), will just sit back and allow Armenians to initiate a military action to grab control of a section of BTC pipeline ?
And how are Armenians going to “garner handsome transit fees”, when the action will be immediately labeled an illegal grab of BP/Western property ?
Which Western entity is going to pay those handsome transit fees to Armenians ?
Enemies of RoA and NKR in the West have been patiently waiting years for just such an opportunity to paint Armenians as the bad guys, the aggressors.
Armenian Diaspora in the West is not powerful enough to butt heads with the richly-financed Turkic lobby and the Oil lobby at the same time, and block their efforts to harm RoA and NKR.
Neocons can and will cause immense damage to both RoA and NKR if ‘their’ oil interests are messed with, and we give them an opening.
One reason BP has kept Sultan Aliyev on a tight lease: last thing they want is for the rat-faced Terrorist to launch/initiate a major war, which will then give RoA and NKR the crystal-clear legal justification to destroy everything connected to oil in Azerbaijan.
Tens of billions of BP investments and future profits will go up in smoke.
Sultan’s masters don’t mind little pinprick attacks here and there: they know RoA and NKR leaders will not take the bait, and launch a full-on war in response.
But BP allowing Aliyev to start a real war is out of the question until Western petroleum interests have fully drained the oil fields. After that, they could not care less what happens to the empty gas station.
And even though I disagree with Mr. Yegparian’s ‘blue line’ proposal for achieving safety and security for NKR and RoA, there can be no argument that as long as Azerbaijan remains a State in its present configuration , Armenians in Caucasus will be under existential threat from Turks.
So if launching/initiating war for Armenians is out of the question – as it should be – how can Turkbaijan be defanged, neutered, and rendered harmless ?
That is something we need to discuss, develop a plan for, and collectively work to achieve
—–
* BP owns about 30% of BTC. Azerbaijan 25%. US oil Cos about 15%. Norway, Turkey, Italy, France, Japan own the remainder.
I totally agree with Avery’s comments.
It is extremely disappointing to see that Mr. Garen Yegparian thinks he is a military strategist and comes up with totally irrational suggestions/ideas. Most of the time, I find his columns amusing. This column is neither well researched nor thought.
Vart Adjemian
I suggest Garen Yeghparian sticks with local domestic California issues in which he seems to be well versed, and stay away from issues that have major Geo-Political implications and are complex to comprehend due to the players that are involved. Advocating another war without taking into consideration consequences or possible repercussions, is certainly unwise.
Vart Adjemian
Since Azerbaijan is clearly using their (dwindling) oil to attract/obtain western support (just as mud attracts pigs, so too does Azeri oil to Israel & its western hardware), & buying many times the dollar amount of weaponry, leaving Armenia & Artsakh more and more vulnerable, its time for Armenians of the Diaspora, of which most are fairly well-off financially, to start sending more money, and regularly, to Armenia. Not for anything other than weaponry. ARMENIA cannot, however ARMENIANS (Globally) CAN afford to equal Azer. Buying power & buy as much sophisticated Russian &/or Iranian weapons as possible, because Azerbaijans recently purchased weaponry coupled with signs that they are being supported by Israel or other western countries will probably end badly for Armenia if things go full-scale. And don’t count on Russia to do anything more than talk. But by then, we may have already lost land.
I think that Armenians should startup ‘Crowdfunding’ or ‘Crowdsourcing’ sites online to help raise money for Armenia. This can be for specific things. Say Armenia needs an aircraft parts repair & manufacturing facility to keep its planes in the air, or more Machine Shops, or whatever will greatly help its self-protection while being productive and even profitable (I.e. over 75% of small to mid-sized Machinists in the US have gone into firearms related production because theres 10 times the demand for that than anything else). The result: 15 years ago there was only 5 or so Mfg’s of M16-type rifles. Today, there are upwards of 1,000 & they are mostly small, mom & pop businesses. I’ll add that they’ve taken the M16 from what it was to an amazing precision weapon with hundreds of variants.
My point is that Armenians are known for helping out each other, & now is the time for those of the Diaspora to step up for a specific cause. We CAN do it!
In regard to Mr. Yegparian’s article, which so many people seem to be deeply critical about, there’s nothing wrong with his suggestion about driving the Azeris back to that blue line. Anyway, did he say that the Armenians should pursue this right now? The answer is no. How do you all know that he wasn’t suggesting this sort of action after a possible Azeri invasion? And furthermore, on the subject of invasion, the events which transpired between the last week of July and first week of August, were indeed an invasion by the Azeris on the two Armenian republics. What did they do? They entered into foreign territory where they were certainly not welcome and proceeded to launch attacks against the Armenian soldiers. That was indeed an invasion! Therefore, the Armenians have every right to attack back and to drive the Azeris back to that blue line and even further back. Over the past six days, I’ve spoken to three people who currently have sons or brothers serving in the Armenia/Artsakh military forces; and each one is assured that the Armenians can easily drive the Azeris far back into their own territory. On the other hand, they didn’t think that now would be the appropriate time to pursue such an action; however, they certainly do believe that this action should be pursued after the next Azeri terrorist invasion.
Hey folks, this philosophy of only defending against invading Azeri soldiers and not proceeding to take any further action, makes absolutely no sense. What would Monte Melkonian think of all this? He would be intensely disgusted by all of this, observing how the human rights of the Artsakh Armenians are being horribly abused by Azerbaijan, while the leadership of Armenia chooses not to attack back. In the meantime, the Azeris attack whenever they feel like it; and as a result, Armenian soldiers continue to get killed. And as usual, these Azerbaijani terrorist acts against the two Armenian republics are constantly being overlooked by the hypocritical OSCE Minsk group. Because the Azeris are permitted to get away with these terrorist acts, and because they already know that the Armenian leadership has forbidden the Armenia/Artsakh military forces to attack back, the Azeris will therefore continue to repeat the same exact cycle over and over. How can a country possibly behave peacefully with an enemy who persistently attacks it? Can you picture what the United States, Russia, or France would do if they were attacked by a neighboring country? Not only would they attack back, but they would also bombard that particular neighboring country from top to bottom. Anyway, the issue here is certainly not about bombarding Azerbaijan from top to bottom. The issue is about attacking Azerbaijan back, whenever they invade either of the two Armenian republics. The Armenians have every right to attack back. If a country attacks another country, then the country who was attacked, automatically has the right to attack back. Therefore, the Armenian leadership should take it upon itself to inform the OSCE Minsk group as well the others about this particular right.