Sarkisian: If There’s War, Our Blow Will Be Final and Deadly (Full Text of Speech)

President Speaks after Military Exercises in Karabagh: If the time comes, we will not only do again what we did in 1992-94, but will go even further and solve the issue once and for all.

STEPANAKERT, NKR (A.W.)–Armenian President Serge Sarkisian and Nagorno Karabagh Republic (NKR) President Bako Sahakian, accompanied by Armenian Minister of Defense Seyran Ohanian and other high-ranking officials, visited defense lines this month and observed first-hand the combat readiness of the troops, according to Sarkisian’s official website.

Sarkisian: If there’s war, we’ll go farther than we did in 1992-94.

The leaders observed military exercises and participated in the opening ceremony of apartments built for the military staff.

Later, the president of Armenia conducted a working meeting with the participation of the Army High Command.

Below is the full text of the speech Sarkisian delivered to the soldiers.

***

Dear junior officers,

Dear soldiers,

The exercises that we observed today have really been very impressive. This is the greatest proof of the fact that every month and every year our army advances even further, becomes more combat ready, more organized, and more disciplined. What we have is enough to deal the potential enemy a lethal blow. However, we will not be complacent about that but will continue to constantly amplify capabilities, skills, and armaments of our Armed Forces because developments in the neighboring country are extremely troublesome. They link all their failures and problems to Armenians. Anti-Armenianism has become state policy. Unfortunately, they prepare their own people for war; we, on the contrary, prepare our people for peace, explain the importance of solving the issue through peaceful means. We state publicly, yes, we are ready to make some concessions, ready to solve the issue when the final status of the Nagorno Karabagh Republic is determined, i.e. the issue of security of the people of Nagorno-Karabagh is resolved.

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Photos courtesy of the Press Office of the president of Armenia.

And to solve this issue, officers and soldiers, you always must be stronger, your combat readiness must intensify, your weapons must be faster, your willpower must prevail, your dedication must be boundless. I have no doubt that if the time comes, we will not only do again what we did in 1992-94, but will go even further and solve the issue once and for all; the issue will be closed for good. What’s to be done to reach our goal? We must constantly be vigilant, be ready. Nobody should doubt your resolve just as I don’t doubt it, because provocations go on, shooting goes on, people continue to die and not every one gives this conduct of Azerbaijan a proper assessment. It means that we have to be vigilant, it means that our military exercises, which have been very close to combat situation, must become a warning for the others, while for us they must become a norm of life. During the military exercises, the officers should display their knowledge, soldiers—their abilities, the command should constantly improve their skills. This is our approach, we have no other way. As commander-in-chief, as president of Armenia, officers and soldiers, I promise that you will have no need of anything. We will acquire modern gear, which we possess also today, we will have everything to be able to protect the most precious thing we have—lives of our soldiers and officers. What we have is quite enough to fulfill with honor the most important task we face.

We hear warmongering every day, every day we hear threats and attempts to scare us. But we have been there already. My veteran friends, who are present here today, officers of senior generation remember how in the beginning of 1992 only the lazy in Azerbaijan was not talking about drinking tea in Stepanakert or Shushi. Their dream remained unfulfilled and many of them took it to the other world. At the time they too thought that they were very strong, that they could solve the issue and very fast. We don’t want war and never wanted, but at that time we had to defend our Motherland. If the time comes again, this time our blow will be final and deadly.

I would like to thank you, your parents, your friends, your teachers, all those who sent you here, and long live to all the defenders of our Motherland.

66 Comments

  1. if a war breaks out , Karabagh will be Azeri once again. Sarkisian wants to look professional but all that he said in his speech reflects the impending defeat for armenians.
    armenians are panicked.

  2. get a life, really… If as you said the conclusion of a war would be Artsakh (hopefully Karabagh will soon become just a historic term) falling to Azeris, then Aliev would have started the war a long time ago. The only thing that keeps Aliev and other Azeri warmongers at bay is their fear of more territorial and political losses. And this kind of military exercises give them even more food for thought. Sarkisian is right, if a war breaks out its aftermath will be everything up to Kura falling under control of Armenians. Not because Sarkisian and other politicians want so, but in spite of them. This will be the only way to guarantee that no BS negotiations and talks of concessions are made, no matter who the next president of Armenia is.

  3. You can give the best and fastest car to any bad driver and he will still have troubles getting it to the finish line.
    No matter how advanced or expensive the weapon, Azeris don’t know how to use it in strategic combat. There is a reason why Armenians are so good at Chess…. even with just a few pawns, we will turn your tables upside down…Checkmate!

  4. In case of a war if russia does not interfere, armenia would be ripped to shreds.
    armenia is an economy of 16 billion while azerbaijan is an economy of 100 pluss billion
    everyday azerbaijan is arming itself with more and more  tanks and jet fighters from the oil in her lands.In the meantime because of the death spiral of armenian economy armenian soldiers are forced to eat in their homes.wars of today are not about phisical strenght or courage or love for the motherland. theye are about TECHNOLOGY,PRODUCTİON CAPACİTY AND RESOURCEFULNESS. Azerbaijan is undoubtedly superior in all of these factors
    courage love for ones nation is irrelavant when you have missle launched from an airplane from 35.000 feet closing on you
    but like i said russia wont let any of this happen so keep up the propoganda

  5.    Why do you want to keep up the propoganda?  Don’t you ever want to live in peace neighbor to neighbor, or are you jealous of something?  I am a Western Armenian Genocide Survivor’s grand-son, the methodology you are conveying will do more harm than good for the region.

      Plus, haven’t you heard of the pact Armenia made with Russia, this new arms pact is good through 2040 or so?  Why continue to mock and disturb your neighbors?  If you haven’t seen around you, Azerbaijan is merely a puppet of the WEST, and from what I can see the WEST has no standing, especially militarily.

      The threat of war merely encourages more Christians and Jewish communities to understand one another, in effect leading to another Holy War.  Haven’t you seen what has happened in Gaza?  Jewish setllers have kicked out Arabs, and due to provocations over the years, Arabs couldn’t muster enough alliances to wage war in return.  How do you think a MUSLIM – AZERBAIJANI war would weigh in the WEST?  Not good, so wake-up and stop the rhetoric, it merely breathes extremism, and in AMERICA there are already counter-measures in place for dealing with that type of threat.

    Your Friend,

    Vatche

  6. 1.) The Armenians will be on the defensive which means the Azeris will have to mount a major, multi-front offensive. They will need to vastly outnumber the Armenian troops in terms of soldiers, tanks, etc. The Georgians tried this against the vastly outnumbered/outgunned Ossets and after some initial success, (due mostly to the element of surprise) were bogged down by small detachments of militia long enough for reinforcements to arrive…and we know how that ended for the Georgians. The Azeris will mostly be at the disadvantage, their only slight advantage is the element of surprise but then again this is not gong to be much of an advantage for them after initial combat. The problem still exists that the Armenians are better experienced, trained, equipped and manned than other military formations in the Caucasus. Additionally, the Armenians hold the strategic high ground and can easily view Azeri operations/ troop movements, across the frontline. On paper, the Azeris might appear stronge in relations to number of troops, tanks, etc  but in reality, when combines the forces of Armenia and Artsakh, the Azeris have only a slight edge in troops, equipments, etc. Until the Azeris actually fight successfull instead of making threats, they are only paper tigers.

    2) If the Azeris are able to breach the initial line of defense, {which will be costly in terms of casualties}, they will still have to cross 2 additional lines which are even more heavily fortified, clear mines, tank traps, coordinated ambush, etc and be able to absorb a massive artillery onslaught for which they will be in the middle of a coordinated trajectory that has been mapped and covered by howitzers, katyushas, strellas, mortars, etc.

    3) if they somehow succede, they will then be bogged down in a mountainous guerrilla war that will ultimately defeat them (such a war can defeat even the best of militaries). The Armenian forces in the region were able to fight successfully this way against combined Azeri-Omon/ Soviet forces prior to the organization of their military with but a handful of dedicated and under-equipped men. It should also be noted that in some areas of Artsakh, tanks are ineffective and actually a detriment. Nor will the Azeris be able to bolster their supply lines in such a mountainous area with good cover and without the danger of sabotage from all sides. 

    4) The Azeris will be racing against the clock; if they are to miraculously succesful, they will need to achieve this not in terms of months or weeks but in mere days. The Armenians will be reinforced almost immediately from Armenia proper. Russia will intervene and resupply Armenia very quickly.

    It should also be noted:

    -While the Azeris have been beefing up their military and material, so have the Armenians. Armenia and Artsakh are not resting on their laurels and they have used their resources much more carefully, buying weapons that they know they need and not for parades. Russia recently provided and extra billion in equipment, ammo, etc and Armenia has been procuring equipment from various states, not just Russia, at very low prices. They have also stockpiled enough fuel and ammo to fight for many months. The last war was a learning experience for the Armenians and they will not forget those lessons in terms of tactics, supply lines, logisitics, etc.
    If the Azeris have a larger airforce, the Armenians counter with a highly-tuned anti-aircraft system (less costly as well). It was true during the first war and true today. As everyday passes, air-power grows more obsolete. The latest anti-aircraft weapons are highly effective and much cheaper to purchase and maintain. The Azeris lost dozens of aircraft during the first war.

    – The Armenian military is far more effective, professional and organized that the first war. They are lead by experienced and successful veterans. Though brash, they are being educated by men with real know-how. This in invaluable. It cannot be underestimated how valuable it is to learn from veterans with real know-how.

    – Again, the Armenians will be fighting a defensive war which means they will absorb attacks and inflict damage on the enemy which is easier and less costly than coordinating an an attack. The Armenians only need to stand firm.

    – The Armenians backs will be against the wall if attacked they will have higher morale. Losing will not be a option. In some cases, their families only live a few kilometers from the front.

    – If the Azeris attack, investors, business, etc will flee. The war will be bad for everyone in terms of human loss, economy, etc but the Azeris have much more to lose. Not only that, the BTC pipeline will be destroyed, I can guarnatee. Remember, this is in Russia’s interest too and Georgia’s control of Javakh is precarious.

    -It is highly likely that if the Azeris attack, they will be defeated and suffer high battle casualties which will result in a demoralized military, disorganization, political instability, more refugees etc. Then they are open for an Armenian counterattack. This happened during the first war. You can forget Turks helping the Azeris, Russia thwarts that threat and their are no longer any significant Chechen forces left to help the Azeris this time. Nor will the Afghan mujaheddin lend a hand this time, they are bogged down against the US and were also totally ineffective against the Armenians in the first war{as were the Chechens}.

    If helter-skelter occurs and the Azeris are somehow manage to subjugate Artsakh, the Armenians have one more trump card up their sleeve and I do believe the Azeri high brass, president know about this but are loathe to say anything……

  7. ARMENIAN  WEEKLY-KHEMBAGHRUTYUN —NOREN SKSETSIK ….                               SIRELI YERITASADR  YEGHBAYR  INCHU  CHEK HASKANUM 1001 PATIJANER  KAN…                                                                                                                       AYD–VERI  APOOSH  GHORDZAKAL- HENDKAHAVI   “GHRADZE”  INCU  YEK  TPAGHRUM?
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    ISHKHAN–USA_________________________________________________

  8. -azerbeijan has oil fields, so this makes them much  less dependent on foriegn investors unlike armenia where a war would completely scare all potensial investors.
    – azerbaijan has a population 3-4 times bigger than armenia.Well many armeians have illegaly migrated to neigbouring countries
    -as i said before azerbaijan controls 85 percent of the caucaus econmy while armenia controls ony 5 percent
    – entire western civilization is bankrupt they have enough problems of their own.They might condemn the war but you cant expect them to send an army
    -in oeder to accomplish the mission all azeris have to do is to destroy armenian army in karadag they dont have to invade armenia

    So in a war withouth foreign interference form neighter turkey nor russia all bets are on azerbaijan

    But this not the reality you live in is it armenian?
    for you it would be like 300 spartans
     ARMENİANS TONİGHT WE DİNE İN KARADAG !!!!!!!!!!!!! :) :) :)

  9. Ahmet and Deniz:
    You two, like most of Azeri leadership, have convinced yourselves that Armenians won the Artsakh War of Survival and Liberation, because, quote, Russia helped Armenia.
    It seems inconceivable to people who have grown up thinking of Armenians as lower forms human being, “gyavours“, that such beings could possibly defeat the ‘superior’ Turk race without some external or supernatural help.
    Go back and read the history: at the start of the Artsakh War of Survival and Liberation Russia/Soviet Union was neutral: Azerbaijan inherited from former Soviet Union far more military hardware than Armenia. Far more Russian and Ukrainian mercenaries fought on the side of Azeris, than Russian volunteers fought on our side. Plus, 1000s of  battle-hardened Afghan Mujahedin  fought on your side. The excellent Chechen commander Shamil Basayev* and his experienced, battle hardened battalion fought in Artsakh on your side, and were defeated by the heroic Dashnak battalion: man for man, AK47 for AK47. Azerbaijan was helped by advanced technology (Israel), NATO trained officers and cadres (Grey Wolves, Turkey), and unlimited money from Muslim Oil states of the Gulf.
    When the war of liberation started, Artaskhtsi were armed only with light weapons; they took everything heavy from Azeris. Azeris had fighter jets – flown mostly by Russian and Ukrainian contract pilots – and helicopter gunships: Armenians had neither. It is true that later on in the war, tanks and heavy artillery were procured from Russia. But, at the start, Azeris had all the advantages in manpower and equipment: Armenians only had their wits and the knowledge that a 2nd Genocide was in the offing – better to fight and die with an AK47 in your hand, than allow the cowards to murder your unarmed wives and children.
    How is it that Azeris, who outnumbered Armenians 5 to 1, had the best technology and hardware that money could buy, were defeated ?  You say Russia helped Armenia ? we can say that Turkey helped Azerbaijan – can’t we ? so,  that should cancel out for both sides and leave Armenians and Azeris on an equal footing, No ?
    Like the other writers said: if Azeris were so confident of victory, they would have invaded Atraskh already. The reason Pres. Sarkisian said what he said is clear: Russian leadership  has told Armenian and Atrsakh leadership that they will not hold Armenians back this time, if Azeris start something.
    Check the historical record: at the end of the Artsakh war Armenian tanks could have raced all the way to Baku, because at that time there was no Azeri Army left. They didn’t because Russia asked Armenians to halt – for whatever geopolitical reasons. Azerbaijan begged the World Community for a cease fire, not the other way around: go and read Western news sources to convince yourselves. So, Russia didn’t save Armenia: Russia saved Azerbaijan from having to face an unconditional surrender: think about that next time you hallucinate about Russia having helped Armenia.
     
    *Note to our Russian brothers: I make no moral judgment on Basaev; only his military competence, of which there is no doubt;  he could be considered a warrior, up until the day he dishonored himself by murdering children of Beslan, for which he publicly claimed responsibility.

  10. Yerevan realizes that Moscow’s got its back when the kaka hits the fan. So, Baku knows that it cannot count on their Tukrish brothers to come to their rescue if things don’t go according to plan. One on one, Armenians will eat Azeris alive. Consequently, no Azeri president will risk losing more territory to Armenian gavurs. Anyway, as usual, excellent speech by our president.

  11. @ Deniz:
     
    “-azerbeijan has oil fields, so this makes them much  less dependent on foriegn investors unlike armenia where a war would completely scare all potensial investors.”
    Which is precisely why the Azeris have more to lose. The Azeris rely solely on customers for oil so if they lose they export capacity, it will be a catastrophe for their economy and you’ll see just how quickly investors skip town and go elsewhere for more stable markets of which there are many.
     
    – azerbaijan has a population 3-4 times bigger than armenia.Well many armeians have illegaly migrated to neigbouring countries
    Indeed. The Azeri population was just as big during the first war and it did them little good; just more canon fodder. The days of putting thousands upon thousands of men into battle to be used effective are long gone. Now the Armenians are entrenched and to dislodge them even under the best of circumstances, the Azeris will take unacceptable casualties.

    -as i said before azerbaijan controls 85 percent of the caucaus econmy while armenia controls ony 5 percent


    See my first comment. That really won’t matter anymore as the Azeri economy (with its sole reliance on export of hyrdo-carbons would be neutralized)

    – entire western civilization is bankrupt they have enough problems of their own.They might condemn the war but you cant expect them to send an army
    Hyperbolic, aren’t you. But I do agree no one will interfere. The Azeris will get no help from NATO, Pakistan, Chechens or even Turkey (which is afraid of Russia so will not intervene, even when Russia was at its weakest in 1993, the Turks stood done when the Russians ordered them to).

    -in oeder to accomplish the mission all azeris have to do is to destroy armenian army in karadag they dont have to invade armenia
    Thats like saying “in order to win the war the Azeris must win the war”.
    So in a war withouth foreign interference form neighter turkey nor russia all bets are on azerbaijan
    This works more in Armenia’s favor. In the first war, the Azeri victories (Operation Ring) and the June 1992 assault were shortlived and only occurred when the Russians interfered on the side of the Azeris. The Russians armed both sides and only a small amount of Russian mercenaries fought alongside the Armenians (many of whom were of Armenia descent) while whole battalions of Russians and other Slavs fought for the Azeris (Surat Husseinov’s men are but one example).
    But this not the reality you live in is it armenian?
    for you it would be like 300 spartans
    ARMENİANS TONİGHT WE DİNE İN KARADAG !!!!!!!!!!!!! 
    Abulfez Elchibey said something similar; “the last Armenian left in Stepanakert will hang from a tree in the town square…how did that work out for him”.

  12. Ahmet,

    isn’t it natural for people not to want war? Why do you think that Azeri people want a war? An Azeri guy I have met has told me himself that he wouldn’t want to go to a war. There will be lives lost on both sides in any war, no matter who wins. Would you like Turkey be in a war? Even if you stand aside and watch other members of the Turkish army losing their lives, even if it does not affect you or any member of your family. If yes, it speaks volumes about you.

  13. @Ahmet
     
    Indeed, people should fear war. It is those that talk the talk but cannot walk the walk that are in for the biggest shock. Aliyev and his generals can talk a big game regarding warfare but that seems to be the extent of it.

  14. The world best armies NATO can not bring Afghanistan under control after 10 years of bloody war…and I wonder how those stupid Azeri Turks with only 120 T-72 tanks wants to control a huge mountainous area like Artsakh…however mighty Ottoman Turks badly defeated at the Battler of Sardarabad war in 4 days…Turks unlike Armenians do not know how to fight in mountainous area..too bad for bellicose Aliev who is planning to shelve more oil money for his early retirement..
     

  15.     Joseph, you honor our people with your intelligent and articulate overview. This is why the Armenians are prepared and ready….. our is a cause of freedom and theirs is a cause of deceit and hatred. The former is a superior motivator.

  16. Gina, Joseph, Grish, Hovo,

    So, you state that the Turkish military can’t fight in mountainous terrain! That Russia will use their nuclear missles! At the war room of the American War College, they have extensive and continuous computer simulations of all possible military scenarios. Yes, there is also one for a war between Turkey and Armenia, without any outside interference. Every possible element was added into the equation. The ultimate outcome…Yerevan capitulates after 96 hours! If there is interference, it would NOT come from Putin and Russia (they are not that stupid), but rather from Serbian mercenaries and other hardcore Christian areas. Given these variables, the delay presented would account for an extra 2-3 days of further fighting, at most, with the result still being the same! Militarily, Armenia isn’t worth any nation sending troops in for. It’s not in any major powers sphere of influence (it has nothing to offer). If anything, the oil pipeline from Baku to Turkey and the Black Sea would have Russia and the West wanting to protect it (it’s in their best interests). This is why Turkey and Azerbaijan have made numerous business agreements with them (including several classified military ones as well). You can all appear as bravado as you wish, but deep down, when push comes to shove, you all know that no one really will have your backs! Oh, the West will do their usual “saber rattlings” in their congress and respective parliaments, but that’ll be about it. No one will dare use a nuke! Armenia’s military is dependent on Russian hardware, and there’s no guarntee that they’ll allow you to have full use of them (forget letting you even touch any of their nukes). Logistically, how (and from where) will you supply your troops and take care of your civillians? Keep in mind that every country has a right to deny their air space to any relief attempts to Armenia. How would you get supplies in? Which countries have you made agreements with that they’ll sacrifice their young sons to defend you? Where would you evacuate your civillians as Turkish troops advance? Now keep in mind this is a scenario just between the two nations. Georgia, Azerbaijan, thousands of imported Moslem fighters from Indonesia to Pakistan aren’t even in the equation! NOW do things become a little clearer to you all? Go ahead and talk big, but know that is all that it will be…TALK!!     

  17. @ Avery, thank you for your extensive warhead techniques and knowledge, also of Artsakh’s recent history.  @Joseph, thank you for your intelligent overview.  Do you guys know how we won Shushi?  We won Shushi thanks to our Armenian soldier climbers who were very articulate mountain climbers.  It was very difficult but thanks to our great mountain climber soldiers we won it and as Shushi is strategically being on a very high ground was very important for us.  Avery already mentioned that we hold the higher grounds and mountains in Artsakh.  Whereas Azeris have the oil today, but when the war breaks down, the western oil hungry businessmen will fly away and the Azeris if compared to the Armenians, they are not knowledgeable in the fighting department nor are they brave or driven enough like the Armenian soldiers for their own soil. 

    Just Remember Ahmet and Muhammed, Armenians are swift, brave, quick witted and knowledgeable in fighting when in war.  Above all, they fight as they are highly driven for their own soil that is inseperable from their living bodies.  If that’s not 100% a winning combination, I don’t know what else is!!!!  Whereas Azeris have more bodies and are more in quantity, Armenians supersede in quality.  Quality of swiftness. of intelligence, of knowlege in how to fight and just as importantly are very much driven for their own soil and the protection of their families from the Azeri wormangers.

  18. Yes Sirvart, you are right: Shushi’s liberation was kicked off by Armenian troops who climbed sheer cliffs – with their weapons, ammo, grenades, RPGs, etc.
     
    Azeris did not defend that side, because they did not consider it possible for anyone to come up that way. They were unpleasantly surprised and fled soon after.

  19. @Robert
    If you read what I have written, I never made the statement that Turkey cannot fight in mountain terrain, as they are fighting a low-instensity conflict at this very moment (although as seen in Turkey via the PKK and the US in Afghanistan, it is extremely difficult and costly to dislodge even a small, under-equipped guerrilla force from such an area). If this were a simple task, the PKK would have disappeared at least decade ago. its very rare anyone defeats a well-disciplined and motivated guerrilla force. Sri Lanka vs. the Tamils is one of the very few and it took many years and cost Sri Lankans tens of thousands of troops.
    As per Russia’s involvement in the case of war between Armenia and Turkey, Russia would not sit idle and they have even guaranteed this arrangement with Armenia. An invasion of Armenia is now an invasion of Russia full-stop. The Armenians signed the latest agreement specifically because it addresses the issue and forces the Turks to the sidelines in the case a new war between the Armenians and Azeris. But I guess there is only one way to found out, right?
    Furthermore, Russia can and will control Georgian airspace if needed. They actually do right now. Russia supplies Armenia over Georgian airspace as the railroad has become less reliable. The Georgians aren’t happy but they don’t have to like it. There is a reason why Stepanakert has a new military airport now and Armenia has purchased a small fleet of transport/cargo planes; direct, cheaper, and easier transfer of weapons (Armenia now takes care of its own ammo).Furthermore, the Russians are also working with Armenia to revamp and develop Armenian domestic weapons program.
    Even at their weakest in 1993, Russia threatened Turkey with war (and indeed WWIII) after Turkey massed troops on the Armenian border and made threats to Armenia. The last thing Russia wants is Turkish involvement and Pan-Turkic union outside of business interests. The Turks stood down right quick. The Russians view Turkish moves in the Caucasus and Central Asia as a direct challenge and you should never discount Russia animosity for Muslim/Turks in this regard. They are asserting themselves in their “near abroad” whether anyone likes it or not, they are on the rise. Its funny how much the Russians are underestimated.
    In the case of renewed war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, your theory regarding Serbian and other Christians fighting on behalf or Armenia and Indonesians and Pakistanis fighting on behalf of the Azeris is laughable and sophmoric. There is no shortage of areas Muslim can flock to in order to fight Christians these days and I believe Artsakh is low in the pecking order. Even the Chechens failed there.
    When the 3,000 or so Paki and Afghan volunteers arrived to fight alongside the Azeris, they were an utter disaster on the battlefield and in fact created political turmoil within Azerbaijan (I personally would love to see Azerbaijan inundated with Taliban. It would be entertaining to see what would happen to the Azeris logistically and politically). The few hundred Turkish mercenaries (who were mostly former Turkish army soldiers) did not fare so well either during the first war. The Bozkurt units were out of action by the late fall of 1992. Beyond sending volunteers and equipment again, the Turks will have to sit this one out.
    Nor will Georgia get involved in such a scenario. To do so will be a further challenge to Russia and they will most likely risk losing Javakh. The Armenian population in the region is well-armed, organized, and angry. After seeing Georgian capabilities in August 2008, they are several years away from being able to mount any tangible attack. Like before, they will sit this one out.
    In the end, the talk is coming from your side. The Armenians don’t really have to do anything. The Azeris are the ones that will have to attack and then face a counter-attack. Had the Azeris and Turks been assured of success, they would have attacked already. Aliyev has rattled his sabres countless times but if he wants/wanted action, all he has to do is give the go ahead. What is the Turkish proverb about dogs barking at moving caravans?
     

  20. I have said this before but I’ll say it again: Joseph is the only other person I have heard (except for military officers in Armenia) that has a real and sober understanding of the military (in)balance in the region. Bravo to you my friend.
     
    The counter-offensive that Azerbaijan needs to mount in order to make serious territorial gains on the battlefield is one that it cannot achieve with its current military capabilities. The current manpower balance is something like 1.8-1 in favor of the Azeris (for every one Armenian, there are about two Azeris). They will need at the very least a 4-1 (I would say a 6-1 in this terrain) advantage to even seriously consider a land attack. The other option they have is to match the initial Armenian advantage with superior technology; thus far, both because Armenia has kept pace and also because current war technology in general favors the defensive team, this is also out of the question.
     
    The only way they have a chance of succeeding is if the Russians completely abandon the Armenians (and even then it will come at a huge cost). But this is thus far extremely unlikely and would be counter to actual, real Russian interests.
     
    As Joseph suggested, the amended 1994 military pact between Russia and Armenia has and will prevent Turkey from playing a major role in Artsakh. Instead, the Turks will most likely useNakhijevan to bombard Armenia proper with artillery (which, while unfortunate for the border towns and villages, is, in purely military terms, inconsequential).
     
    A topographic map of the region will reveal the real political and military borders. Except for Fizuli in the south-east, and Martakert in the north, the Armenians have a near monopoly on the high ground. (This is why, by the way, most of the cease fire violations occur at Fizuli — it’s a tense line of contact).
     
    But this is the wrong discussion to have. Just because the Azeris cannot afford a land attack does not mean they don’t have other options. In fact, as many experts have concluded (GerardChaliand, for example) Azerbaijan will probably initiate a new war by extreme, constant, and heavy artillery bombardment of the frontline and also Stepanakert. They will, essentially, throw everything they have short of their young men. Of course the only way to truly counter this is an offensive, which, like Azerbaijan, Armenia cannot afford either. Unfortunately, Artsakh is going to suffer heavy civilian casualties in the next war. The goal of the Azeris will be to hurt the demographic trend in Artsakh; Artsakh’s population is booming right now — if this continues, even the tiny manpower advantage they have will mean nothing.

    In this case, the Russians will let the two sides weaken each other a little before stepping in and enforcing a second ceasefire.

    But this also has some important ramifications for Azerbaijan, and they need to really think this through before going ahead with it. ANY resumption of hostilities will cause Armenia to leave any future negotiations, adopt a hardline position, and either annex all of the “occupied territories” or recognize the NKR. This will not bode well for Aliyev, who, by the way, risks losing power and prestige in the likely event Azerbaijan makes no serious gains (which is how his daddy came to power in the first place!).
     
    The Armenians will also take shots at the oil infrastructure of Azerbaijan (another great reason not to go to war).
     
    Joseph, are you from the NY area?

  21. Thinking Armenia/Armenians can alone militarily oppose Turkey is foolish at best suicidal at worst. Putting aside stupid US military simulations, yes, the Turkish military will most probably be able to reach Yerevan within a week of hostilities – in a one on one combat. However, thinking that Russia will sit by and allow Turkey to invade Armenia is Saakashvilian. This shows a complete lack of political understanding. No chance in hell that Kremlin official will allow Turks/Americans/Iranians/Martians to establish themselves in the Caucasus. Nevertheless, Turkey’s real power, militarily and economically is not a joke. A poor, tiny and landlocked nation surrounded by enemies in a place like the Caucasus has no choice but to work hard (even if it means to bend-over) on having better/deeper/closer relations with the northern bear. So, in this regard, yes, Russia is the only political entity in the region today that can keep Turks on their side of the border. Long live Russian-Armenian alliance.

  22. I doubt that any Armenian or Azeri mother wants to lose a child to another war.  But I think Sarkisian was right to issue such a strong statement as a response to ongoing Azeri provocation.  The pan-turkic agenda must not go unchecked.

  23. My proposal: Allow all Armenian youth from the diaspora to in-list in the Armenian army for a 2 to 4 year term.
    1. It’s every Armenians duty to do so.
    2. It will create a larger pool of qualified soldiers.
    3. Armenia will already have trained combat ready soldiers in case of war who
    would already know the Armenian system even after their 2 to 4 years service is over.
    4. Many Armenians may actually stay after service and further help populate and help
    the country when service is over.
    5. Instill more diaspora mentality, resources and participation in Armenia proper.
    It’s a win, win situation.
     
    Last: If the Azeris believed they would win the war they would already have started it. That is clear. Armenians understand that Turks only rape, murder and steal WHEN THEY CAN as they are ultra scavenger opportunist. Sarkisian needs to be more blunt toward these mongols. They need to understand that war will only hurt them badly. The Armenian army is the first of it’s kind in hundreds of years since Armenians, for over 400 years, were basically subjects under a race of Turkish animals and abused as subjects by a sick dysfunctional race of people.
    NO MORE! Those days are done! Long gone! Make no mistake Azeri’s will lose.
     

  24. Joseph,
    What I fear is Russia annexing Armenia. All former empires who ruled over Armenia eyes it as their territory. I view Russian and Turkish ambitions in this light.
    I believe that twice, some people tried to introduce a bill in the Kremlin to annex Armenia (correct me if I’m wrong on this). So I believe this ambition exists in Russia just as it does in Turkey.
    If there is a war and the Russian military is involved, I wonder if they will go so far as to use such a chaotic situation to annex Armenia into the Russian Federation.
     
    As for what Robert said (yes I’m familiar with his regular postings), there will not be any use of nuclear warheads. The US and the Soviets have fought many wars since WWII all over the world and they haven’t used nukes and they won’t be used in a war over Armenia. Another thing that Robert touches on that a lot loud talking posters don’t see is that Turkey has a lot more to offer to many countries economically and as a consumer of weapons. Turkey will either use weapons or money to get their way. Russia can be bought. Russia is using the Karabakh conflict for her advantage. She’s selling weapons to both countries and there were Russian troops on both sides during the war.

  25. Since when do economies fight wars? Is Azerbaijan going to throw 16 billion coins at Armenia? :)))

    It is all about combat readiness, experience and will. The Artsakh army has all three while Azerbaijan has none. Sure, Azerbaijan has money to potentially buy deadly toys but I don’t see anything advanced in the Azerbaijan army. The only advantage Azerbaijan has over Artsakh is air superiority but two things make this fact not worriesome: a) Azerbaijan also had this advantage during the first war, b) Artsakh has excellent air defense. Also, don’t expect this war only to take place in the NKR. You can bet NKR will be taking this war to Azerbaijan after the initial Azeri attack.

  26. The only solution is immediate, formal reunification with Armenia proper….the sooner, the better. Otherwise, this dangerous state of affairs will continue indefinitely. Let’s not forget, Armenia has already won full title to Karabagh, after a 70 hiatus. Nothing should jeopardize that at this point…nothing.

  27. @Henrick,
     
    Thank you for your kind words. I split time between Washington, DC and Florida.
    The only area where I disagree with you above is regarding Nakhijevan. The Russians are co-guarantors of the region so for Turkey to use the area for attacks would violate the treaty and thus cause the Russians to react immediately. In May 1992, this almost happened. Azeris briefly bombarded Zangezour from the region, the Armenians reacted by dislodging Azeri positions, the Turks threatened to occupy the Nakhijevan, and the Russia invoked the treaty.

  28. For all the inspiring talk, in the long term, the threat of war will be far worse for Armenia than an actual war that provides some sort of finality.

    Armenian’s economic, political and social development is and will continue to be severely constrained by a possible future war. It lives in state of defensiveness, fear, paranoia. Its economy will underperform due a lack of investment arising from the fears of international investors. The continuous need to increase the military budget will haemorrhage the treasury. It’s population growth will be contrained. Many of it’s most educated and talented will move offshore where there are higher wages and better standards of living. Democracy will be undermined as happens to every nation that believes its on a war footing. It will gravitate to the orbit of Russia for safety and support. The price of this support will be the loss of it’s national autonomy. I could go on and on….. 

  29. @ Random Armenian,
    I do not fear Russian annexation of Armenia but I do think annexation might be a wise choice if Armenia finds itself in being invaded by Turkey with no options left. Much like Armenia found itself after WWI, if the choice is between further genocide and survival, Armenia will choose survival which could mean annexation by Russia as a possibility. Though with the current military agreement between Armenia and Russia, this does not need to occur.
    I’m not aware of any Russia proposals to annex Armenia but if they exist, it is probably from Parliamentarians who are pro-Armenian and not done out of malice to Armenia.
    Economically, Turkey and Azerbaijan have more to offer than Armenia, but this is not the Russian motivation in the region; it is control and to keep out western encroachment and control the situation near their borders. Armenia is the cornerstone of this strategy in the Caucasus. The Russians have more oil than the Saudis and their economy and power has grown by leaps and bounds since to dog days of 1992-1994.
    Russia will sell weapons to anyone, this is true (and believe me, Armenia gets much for free). The current situation between Armenian and Azerbaijan reminds me more of mutually assured destruction in the case of war. The current situation is to Russia’s liking.
    As far as nukes being used, I do not think they’ll be utilized be used unless the Turks invade Armenia and if for some reason, Russia finds itself unable to overcome the attack (a very doubtful scenario). I guess the Turks can find out if they wish. Russia has certainly made the threat before. Armenia, while not having conventional nuclear missiles, does have late version SCUD B’s and SCUD C’s that can be enhanced with radiation from Metsamor if needed in a worst case-scenario.
     

  30. All above speculations very interesting .But today’s reality is that great Turkey is very much disturbed.Firstly their repeated tries to enter EU have  not been met with approval.Then they turned to East inviting various neighbour and further away  Islam states  to sort of submit to them as chaperon..which also went down the drain.Neither Arabs nor Iranians joined up.Now all they have left is North East.Viz. Azerbaijan to further  N.East.And….
    This is what has transpired  only couple days  ago. Mr. Davutoghlu,FM of R.of Turkey on a visit to Uigur land,  turkic speaking Province  of China,has declared and I quote “our ancestors came form here..”  to that  effect.Which completely reverses  their [PREVIOUS Claims  …that they are  THE indigenous  people  of present  R.of Turkey.
    Something  that Armenians for long persisted on trumpeting  hard and they refused to admit.Now   …it looks like  winds are blowing from other directions….
    it only remains to see how  China reacts  to that…
     

  31. @Henrik, All your comments are well taken.  The only one comment I would like to make in reference to your post is it’s true that the Turkish army is powerful today, no doubt about that; however even if they can, Russia will never let Turkey to attack Armenia through Nakhichevan or from any other side.  I believe when in the early 1990’s Turkey was about to try an attack, Russia stopped them immediately.  Yes the Russians won’t use to nuke anyone nor let anyone else in the region to use it; but they can be crazy that way.  When they said to Turkey then that if they tried to attack Armenia Russia will step in and attack them right back; Turkey stopped immediately, because they knew that when Russia says a thing like that they mean it.  Russia can be that way and Turkey knows it too.  Thank goodness for Armenia’s sake.  @John, It would be great if your analysis or rather your wishes will come true and every or even most mothers from Diaspora would send their 20 years old sons to Armenia for 2-4 years to to learn the techniques and to be ready for the future.  It would be a great thing if it materializes; just in case when a war breaks down in the region.  @Random Armenian, I don’t think Russia will annexe Armenia.  They consider us as buffer zone in the region and the most sane and willing to compromise with them.  They know that we’re smart fighters, Christians like them, more logical and that we know both the value and the power of the Russian Empire.  I am glad that Sarkisian continues to stand to be in good terms with them.  It’s the only sane thing to do.

  32. It looks as though I posted mine at the same time as Joseph, and I see that we both said the same thing in reference to how Russia stopped the Turks before, not to go any further in attacking Armenia as well as in his answer to Random of a possible annexation from Russia.  Though I don’t think that will happen. 

  33. John..I agree with you.. instead of having our sons and brothers go serve in the Army of different countries, I rather have our sons and brothers serve in and for our own country … i understand that for every mother this may be hard but it is our future and our country that these young men and women are training to protect…

    Joseph- I get satisfaction.. 100% educational satisfaction from reading your comments… qefs galisa… thank you for everythingyou have shared here.. your passion, your intelligence and your dedication…

    The turks/azeris on this discussion who spit out hatred  … please know that what you express is nothing but Anti-ARmenianness….. i can feel how much you want to portray your disgust about ARmenia having even the slightest advantage over your unpopular govt and military… and of course Armenians having more value, quality and moral.  Please know that when ARmenians fight they fight for a reason and with all their soul and heart because it is their families and their land and country they are fighting for.. there are no option for the Armenian soldier.. either to win or die protecting their county and getting back their lands…i can’t say the same for Turks and Azeris because they have no reason to fight except to keep the lands they have stolen from Armenians… they fight because they get paid by their govt to fight.. their heart is not in it …… so at the end of the day,  who wins? the soldier whose heart is in it .. the soldier who will not rest until their country is saved and if it means to give up their own precious life, they will do it without rethinking.. so please get off your hated horse ride and understand what we have that you don’t have… who gives a crap about you having the numbers and the high tech… you guys had that in the first war… pleaseeeeeeeeee…it is all about fighting smart and not have the numbers.. unfortunately there is nothing smart about Turkey and Azerbajian military….

    God Bless our soldiers and keep them healthy and strong.. they are the protectors of our country.. we love and support you..

  34. Joseph,
    I find the consideration of use of nukes in the scenarios so far discussed, disturbing and frankly out of the question. I very much doubt that Russia would risk the international reaction to the first use of nuclear weapons since WWII. So many wars have been fought by nuclear powers since then and they have not used once.
    “SCUD B’s and SCUD C’s that can be enhanced with radiation from Metsamor if needed in a worst case-scenario.”
    This makes no sense to me. The side effects of such a thing would not be immediate. Maybe increase in cancer rates years after it’s use.
    Otherwise I hope you’re right on a lot of the other points you discussed.

  35. Only warmongers do not fear war itself.  Thus a peace loving people like Armenians are afraid of what they may have to do to their warmongering neighbors, after the above mentioned have started the war that will surely end their existence.  Once the Azeris are gone.  the Armenians are afraid of how they would manage to deal with all of that oil and sea access that they will inherit.  That is what the 42% of the Armenians are fearful of.

  36. (Open source). SCUD Bs or Cs those are insignificant ones, they first used by USSR army in 1961. RA does have P-17s. The airspace of Secaucus is under the command of a single unit. S300s in Abkhasia and S. Osetia are connectied with S300 in NKR (at least 2 unit) and S300s in RA 102 base. S300 glatiators in RA are upgraded recently, they are now able to be not only surface to air, but also surface to surface. I am not sure azeris have this system or not, but even if they have is useless, since russians use special software which sensors “mine and alien”. This means that they can not target our aircrafts (russian made). I don’t have time to share more, but I want to mention that in this dril there were more military equipment (350) than in actual war, some of them were classified hardware. Azeris, they know well, when we say something we really mean it, but we will not attack first, even if they attack we will not counterattack imediately, we will use fortifications in cross_lines to inflict maximum demage to the enemy, than we will counterattack. I don’t even want to mention their fighting abilities. Only azeris just having 17 life-loses left the Fizuli, only azeris having 4 times more soldiers, 37 times more tanks, 70 times more aircrafts, 1000 times more ammunition, lost the war. Turkey wanted to involve into the war directly by claiming that armenians were financing PKK, but could not, since russians told them that any third party involvment can result russians involvment which would lead ww3. Turkey can not involve if there is a war, even azeris admit that they will not attack internetionally recognized RA (excluding NKR), since Armenia is CSTO member + its security is guranteed by Russia until at leas 2044, and russian base in gumri has 5000 troops well equipped, RF citizens, but 90% of them are ethnically armenians, ready to sacrifice if necessary. Russian Federation is currently negotiating with armenia in order to increae the troop numbers. Anyway azeris don’t have chance, but to recognise NKR, by doing so they may get some districts or they will lose all, and possibly more…

  37. Get a grip people….the Azeris won’t ‘be gone’…where are they going to go, all 7 million of them?  Plus, there’s another 17 million of them right across the border in Iran. This kind of bragging and warmongering is like an eye for an eye…you both end up blind. If anyone thinks Armenia needs or can sustain a war, they should think again….it is way too risky and too damaging. Everything that needs to be done has already been done, now just redraw the border, make it final and stick with it. If you have to defend that, ok, but at least take control and make it real.  But, to threaten war over a territory that the Sarkisyan govt doesn’t even recognize in any formal way is a bit odd…as if two wrongs can make it right. WRONG!

  38. Karekin, I think Berch is being sarcastic when he says Azeris will be gone. Of course, they will not be gone and why should they be gone. I very much hope that one they we will have better mutual understanding, nicer relationship with each other and coexist in peace. War is not the right solution to the problem. Most Azeris do not want it and most Armenians do not want it, and they shouldn’t. God forbid.  

  39. Karekin.. who says we are bragging.. we are merely addressing the fact that Armenians are not war lovers… we love peace.. and if you have not noticed for all these years, century and on, we have been attacked first.. we have been pushed to fight.. we never did anything intentional to other nations…

    This is no difference with what is happening now….. i believe it was the Azeris who have tried few times to provoke us.. and they did get an answer… but like we said.. Armenians will never fight first unless they are pushed and pushed.. if Azeris are smart which i doubt it… they will obey the peace agreement, do what they are suppose to do and not jump high and mighty … because one day they will get their share if they dont’ behave and it will be too late…God is watching…

    No mother would want their son or daughter to lose a life.. we have lost too many lives through the years and we can’t afford any more innocent lives.. however, do Azeri govt care? no.. they have the numbers.. they dont’ care if thousands of their own are lost.. they have plenty of them…it is sad if you ask me…..

    I just pray to God that Azeris and Turks realize that what they have in mind for our people and country may not materalize and they may end up the losers at the end..

    Astvats mer koghman…

  40. Karekin,
     
    Azerbaijanis of Iran are so integrated in the Iranian society that you cannot equate the newly-formed nation (the former Soviet republic) of Azerbaijan with the Iranian provinces of the so-called “Northern Azerbaijan.” Besides, you should know that modern-day Azeris stole the name of an ancient Iranian province and, with the help of Russian Bolsheviks, created a nation in the 20th century that never before existed in history. Azeries were called “Caucasus Tartars” or simply “Muslims”. They were given a (stolen) name, identity, the republic status, as well as Armenian provinces of Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhichevan in the 1920s by the Soviet regime. Hoping that you know all this, I’m trying to demonstrate the level of frustration and indignation of Armenians who lost Western Armenia, as well as two eastern Armenian provinces, to the Turks: Turkish or Azeri, same thing. They are ethnic Turks, and have much more ethnic and cultural affinity with each other, than Azeris might have with Iranian Azerbaijanis.

  41. Joseph,

    I wrote four names to my post. Grish was the one that my response of Turks not being able to fight in mountainous regions was intended for, not you. You seem to be more level-headed (and well educated as well) than some of the other posters here. You propbably know that Turkish troops help train the US Army’s 10th Mountain Division (and they are with them as we speak in Afghanistan). You may not agree with my views, as expressed in my posts. That’s okay, we’re all entitled to our opinions. I respect your points of view, just as I know you respect mine. I do agree with you in that a determined insurgency (whether in the mountains or jungles, or urban areas) can protract a war longer than anticipated. This would be true on both ends (Turks dealing with insurgents and Armenians dealing with them in their respective areas). Believe me when I say that there are indeed classified “agreements” which would shock many people. First of all, let me clarify one point. Turkey isn’t going to invade Armenia. What’s in it for her to do so? Nothing, other than a major headache. However, if Armenia IS the agressor and launches a pre-emptive strike against Azerbaijan, then things change (Armenia would never attack Turkey, for to do so would spell the end for Armenia, so this is not a concern). I’ve always been in favor of peaceful settlements to temporary problems (because when you really look at it, all of the world’s hot spots can be resolved in a peaceful manner, if all sides are truly willing). You mentioned that Russia would have your back unconditionally. How sure are you of this? Armenia is betting the farm on this supposition. Remember what I wrote earlier. Times change and people change with time. It wasn’t Russia telling Turkey anything in 1993-1994. It was a joint agreement between the US and Russia which collectively placed a tremendous amount of pressure on Turkey not to get involved there at that time. But, as I’ve said, times have changed (geopolitically, financially, militarily). What may have been true then certainly is not so now. Keep this in mind as you continue believing that Russia is sure to have your backs, should you become the agressor nation.

  42. The Armenian/Azeri conflict cannot be viewed as an isolated issue, it is connected directly and indirectly to the bigger regional issues; thus the ramifications of the outcome have direct influence on the region as a whole.  Any regional destabilization will create an atmosphere where the major powers will clash to gain the upper hand in region’s affairs.
    Today’s Regional Geopolitical Dynamics in Caucuses and Middle East have changed since the collapse of the Soviet Union.  We have three major power brokers in the region, Russia, Turkey and Iran; and lesser or indirect players i.e. United States and European Union. 
    The three major players in the region are back in pursuing their expansionist ambitions using different means and methods.  Russia made clear to the world that it does not hesitate to use military force to achieve its goals. Turkey is utilizing a different route in its application, using economic might to reach Arab and Islamic nations; while Iran has been using both military and economic means to expand towards Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
    On the surface these major powers are portraying a game of “Symbiotic” regional policy.  But if we scratch the surface we will find that the Symbiotic Relationship is not that symbiotic.  In the Middle East, Iran has been working overtly in keeping Syria and Lebanon under its influence.  And recent Iraqi elections proved Iran’s political weight in bringing about a pro Iranian government.  Meanwhile, Turkey is exerting huge political and economical pressure in Iraq to counter balance Iran by striking deals with Sunny Kurds and with the Sunni minority.  In Lebanon, Syria and Jordan the picture is the same, Lebanon and Syria are considered “traditional” foothold of Iran, but recent Turkish maneuvers are gaining popularity among Lebanese, Syrians, Jordanians and Palestinians; thanks to the Marmara fiasco.  The only countries that do not feel comfortable with Turkish incursion are the traditional Arab power brokers, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. 
    Turkey is pushing forward its expansionist policies under the disguise of “Zero Problem” with its neighbors, by doing that Turkey is safe guarding its borders from outside aggression. 
    Iran is doing its part simultaneously by claiming to be the protector of Shiaa communities all over the world, mainly in Iraq, Syria (Alawis are offshoot of Shiaa), Lebanon and Afghanistan (by supporting Tails and previous Northern Alliance).  It is important to mention here, that Turkey is also competing Iran in Afghanistan by providing NATO troops and conducting humanitarian activities.
    Although Turkey is trying hard to protect its borders from outside aggression, Turkey still has huge domestic issues, which are as threatening to its national security as the outside powers.  Turkey has three major domestic problems, Ergenekon/Deep State/Kemalist, the new Al Qaida/Islamic fundamentalist surge and the Kurdish issue.  
    Recent Turkish court procedures came to confirm the attempts of Ergenekon in organizing a government over throw where the membership of the participants reaches the upper echelon of Turkish Armed Forces.  Similarly, the attempts of Turkish Al Qaida to destabilize Turkey are surging.  The “Afgan Turks” who were trained and fought in Afghanistan, Pakistan and in Iraq are returning home to establish their own Islamic States.   Yet the biggest threat for Turkey’s existence is the largest minority within its borders, the Kurds.  We all know that Kurds have past the stage of being Mountain Turks, they want their own Kurdistan.
    On international level, specifically with West, Turkey’s position is not encouraging.  Turkey is in process of severing its ties with Israel, and at the same time Turkey is gradually distancing itself from the West.
    Turkey is refusing to be a second class player in the region, it wants to a lead player in the region.  
    Turkey’s rejection in enforcing embargo on Iran, and its recent stance on the Missile Shield issue with NATO and United States, shows the boldness of Turkey to go against its allies in pursuing its own agenda.
    These are the conditions that Turkey is demanding to allow Missile Shield on its soil:
    “Terms of Ankara in Lisbon
    Diplomatic sources said that Ankara has informed NATO of its reservations on some points of the project, which aims to set up platforms radar spy. Therefore, rocket launchers on Turkish territory and territorial waters of Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea to counter the threat of Iranian missiles and perhaps the Syrian and Russian.
    The sources said that during the Lisbon summit Ankara will inform the leaders of NATO that it would accept this system only under the following conditions:
    1 However, given the name of Iran or Syria, in any form in the project decision, which should be directed to all the dangers that threaten all the countries of NATO.
    2 Turkey to have direct access to information collected by the radar platforms for missile movements in the region.
    3  Turkey has to be a major decision taker in light of the information collected by the radar platforms.
    4  Clear assurances not to use the platforms radars and missiles to protect Israel or give any information.
    5  The platforms are set up radars and missiles, not only in Poland and Turkey, but in all Member States in the alliance as long as there is common danger.
    6 To announce the alliance’s solidarity with Turkey in its fight against the PKK, and protection of Turkey is the responsibility of the Alliance.
    In addition, many of the technical points of the contribution of Member States in the cost of the project, which is 20 million Euros for each country, as well as the duration for the implementation of the project is expected to be ready during the period up to 2015”.
     
    http://www.alqabas.com.kw/Article.aspx?id=649848&date=06112010
     
     
     
     In terms of Azerbaijan, its ethnic composition can trigger an internal disorder or even a civil war in case the current government comes out weak after or during a war with Armenia. 
    The social fabric of Azerbaijan is composed of Talysh, Tat, Kurds, Lezgins, Kryzi, Khinalug, Tsakhurs and Udin.  There is a prevailing policy of forceful assimilation of all minorities, but mainly it is geared towards Udin, Kurds and Lezgin minorities.  Lezgins, who are predominantly Sunni Muslims and speak a separate Caucasian language, want to separate Lezgin populated districts both from Dagestan and Azerbaijan in order to create autonomous republic with Lezgin as the state language. 
    Also, there is the possibility of Azeri uprisings on the Iranian border where the majority of the people belong to Azeri origin.
    In Georgia the situation is not different, but the major concern is the Azeri minorities who live in Kvemo Kartli, Kakheti, Tibilisi, Shida Kartli and Mtskheta Mtianeti.
    In recent upsurge of nationalism in Georgia gave rise to tension between Georgians and Azeris in Kvemo Kartli.  This tension resulted in confrontations between Georgians and Azeris, ensuing in widespread protests in Marneuli, Dmanisi and Bolnisi where several Azeri houses were burned.
     
    There is another historical turning point that cannot be ignored, the rise of Islamic Fundamentalism.
    Before the fall of USSR, Mujahedin fighters were considered benign group of people who can be manipulated to conduct proxy wars.  After 9/11 this perception has changed, now they are considered the primary threat to the West. 
    During Artsakh war, thousands of Mujahedins flooded Azerbaijan from Afghanistan, Middle East, Turkey and Chechnya to fight the Holly war against Armenians.  Today theses Mujahedins are considered terrorists and no country would like to be associated with terrorists.  Also, these Mujahedins after returning home they tried to force their belief system in their own countries which caused serious national security problems.  The fruits of Mujahedins labors can be seen in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan.
    Fortunately, the international community is well aware of the most threatening danger in this century, which is Islamic Fundamentalism.  We are witnessing the process of building bridges between Russia and NATO forces; the statement made by Anders Rasmussen confirms this:
    “I think we are witnessing a fresh start in the relationship between NATO and Russia and maybe I could go further and say a fresh start in the relationship between Russia and the West,” Anders Fogh Rasmussen told a news conference.
    If another war erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a new generation of Mujahedins will rush to Azerbaijan to fight against the infidels.  There should be no doubt about this, now anti Christian sentiment is much stronger in Middle East especially among the Islamic Fundamentalists. 
    But this time around utilizing Mujahedins by Turkey and Azerbaijan demands taking a grave risk, knowing the past performances of Mujahedins these countries might not take the chance of destabilizing their countries on the long run. In addition to that the West might pour its military hardware and support Armenia to defeat the Mujahedins.
    In conclusion, no country will be victorious in the end.  Once a war erupts in Caucasus, all major countries will get involved, and all the superficial alliances or “friendships” will disintegrate.  Turkey might find itself fighting internally with Kurds and Kemalists, and on its borders it will find Syria fighting to regain Iskanderoun. Also, the possibility of Iran and Israel supporting Kurds and eventual creation of Kurdistan. Iran will not lose an opportunity to regain its status as a major regional player competing against Turkey. Meanwhile the recent Turkish leadership maneuvers in the region will cause its isolation and lack of Western support.  
    In case of Azerbaijan, we know that it has its own share of internal conflicts, especially with Lesgins. But the biggest hurdle will be on the Iranian border, if Iran decides to push the Iranian Azeris up north which will create a huge refugee crisis for Azerbaijan. 
    Azerbaijan taking into the consideration the current geopolitical dynamics of the region, knowing the sensitive spot that Turkey has put itself in, might not venture in a new war with Armenia.
    Russia on the other hand, seems to be content with Iran being contained by the international community.  This leaves Russia to deal with Turkey, which is expanding its circle of influence in the Middle East.  During USSR era, Russia maintained some level of influence in ME, but since the disintegration of USSR Egypt and Saudi Arabia increased their influence in the affairs of that region. And most recently Turkey and Iran are competing for open markets in ME. 
    Most likely Russia still has desires to gain foothold in ME, but that will be on the long run.  Meanwhile Russia will maintain its influence in Southern Caucasus primarily over Armenia and not allow Turkey or Iran to draw Armenia within their circle of influence.   In addition Armenia being a Christian country, its strategic location is considered a buffer zone against Pan Turkic and Islamic advancements.
     
     
     

  43. Joseph’s suggestion that ” Armenia gets much for free ” meaning weapons from Russia, is utterly absurd. Nothing is FREE. Armenia is slowly selling off the family farm i.e. its vital interests, assets and industries to Russia to pay for all those ‘free’ military hardware. Before long, Armenia’s soveriegnty will be eroded to the point that it will end up being a mere satellite state of Russia, economically and militarily. That is by far the greatest risk to Armenian’s independence today.  It is inconceivable that Turkey would attack Armenia. Davutoglu knows very well the order of the day is now soft power and not military conquests. Its also unlikely that the Azeri’s will initiate any full frontal attack anytime soon. They will instead pick,harass, sniper, selectively bomb to unsettle Armenia nerves to the point economic and political exhaustion. And Russia won’t intervene because it is quite content with the status quo.

    Armenia should seriously consider retreat from significant areas of the disputed areas i.e. more than it would like to give but less than what the Azeri’s are demanding. It should then annex the remaining portion to end the charade of the NKR Republic. That should allow it to get on the front foot internationally and distengale itself from the stalemate and its regional isolation. Don’t think of it so much as surrender but as a tactical retreat. A slightly smaller but properous and independent Armenia is preferred over a geographically larger but poorer, dependent nation slowly dying by a thousand cuts. 

  44. Robert you are known to this pages as very Anti-Armenian.. so don’t even go there… you are correct though when you said that Joseph is a very intellectura indiviual..but you neglected to say that many on this site are along with Joseph.. each one has their way of education.. can’t say much about yours. as all you think of is to crush anything pro Armenian.. that is my opinion..

    Daron.. wow. great commentary.. thank you…

    Karekin– amazing.. we actually agree on something.. that is a miracle..:) guess when they say anything is possible, it is true…:)

    I just wish these jackals, Azeris govt and Turkish govt will leave us alone and get their filthy paws off of the little land we were left with.. greedy bastards….

  45. I think you can move past all the religious and ethnic idenity issues…as those are all secondary.  The primary motivation for all the ‘great’ powers…is oil, plain and simple. For Armenia, the issue is water and other resources. Of course, Armenia cannot exist as an isolated island and needs to be a regional player, but the reality is that Azerbaijan does not and never has needed Karabagh. It is a pawn that is being used as a bargaining chip.  The fact is, all the pipelines skirt around Karabagh to bring oil to Turkey and Israel, rather than supplying Russia via the northern route thru Chechnya, which is dangerous.  So, the key for the major players is security, and if that means suppressing indigenous freedoms, justice or human rights, they will do it and not even blink. As Armenia takes its time to reunify, the other players are arming themselves to the teeth, i.e., Turkey is buying drones from Israel.  Who knows what’s been sold to Azerbaijan?  If Armenia does not clearly stake its claim to Karabagh and then developing a truly integrated economy, it runs the risk of losing it. That doesn’t mean it will, but it does imply that Karabagh is vulnerable.    

  46. PAUL IS RIGHT,as to Aterpatakan azeris en iran.They are firmly integrated and persian is their official language.Try hard as the Azeris did recent yrs.no dice.
    As to Daron’s or other speculations,also all have something definitely correct in their speculations. I like a bit moe the ZEKI type though,that looks at things from other side,like he was picturing what a turco azeri would.This we should uphold more  than our  own
    However ZEKI,in a supposed ceding of a couple  or so districts of the “sescurity’zones,say Fizouli, Jabrail,don’t you think we aare also entitled to get back “Shahumian, that ws near 100% Armenian populated and the omon forces with soviet aid occupied  it.You see,i do sort of agree to your proposals but without giving in an inch without taking back an inch that IS OURS.You hypothetically speculate  that the West or others would then begin to “caress’ us.Not so!!!  they never did  that, not even the Russians.
    I suggest the mode we are in is tantamoungt to what V.Oskanyan followed,the complimentarian one,a bit leaning to US,EU another so to Russian Federation.The Treaty signed rather re signed with latter,also does  not mean much.While,we should understand these are diplomatic give and takes,under the table big  BIZness is being conducted whether Ruso Turkish Ruso ranian ,US Arabain whatever.
    Unfortunately it seems the arm race  is on all ovver.What the Diaspora Can do,and this for the unptieth time,…IS TO REORGANIZE ITSELF INTO A SUPER SSTRUCTURE  WITH HEAD,THE SUPREME COUNCIL and then begin to cooperate properly with RA,Artsakh and javakhk etc.,

  47. I think we can all agree (except for the most flippant Armenians and Turks) that neither country is going to invade the other. Nor do I think Armenia is going to make a pre-emptive strike into Azerbaijan (which would be an illogical strategy). What Sarkissian is essentially stating is that if Azerbaijan intends to attack- either Artsakh and/or Armenia itself- the Armenians are ready and will counterattack and do so effectively.
    Whether or not the Armenians can withstand and repel the initial attack (which I think they would be able) or that the Azeris can fallback and defend their lines should such an attack fail (they may be able to as well) remains to be seen. The onus is on Azerbaijan to attack, not the Armenians. If the Azeris do go on the offensive, there is good reason to believe that the war will then spread into other regions within their current borders when the counterattack commences. This would clearly be the Armenian strategy as it makes the most tactical sense but then again, just being able to withstand and repel will lead to Azerbaijan losing not just Artsakh but the other unrecovered regions outside of Artsakh indefinitely. The Azeris will have to take a huge risk militarily and politically. If this occurs, Armenia will then recognize or annex Artsakh.
    Just the same, the Russian-Armenian Agreement does indeed guarantee that in the case Armenia is attacked, Russia will actively assist in its defense; in terms of both combat and resupply (along with the re-development of the Armenian military industrial sector). You can argue that Armenians should not rely on this Agreement but the contents of the document are quite definitive and clearly defined. I also believe that based on Russia’s current actions and engagement in the Caucasus region, that they’re of both the position and mindset to back up their words/treaties. The August 2008 war was a clear example.
    As far as any classified agreement(s) between the Turks and Azeris, this would not be surprising and I’m quite sure such arrangements have been in place and enhanced since the early 1990’s.
    In Russia’s dealing with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, they are through both hard and soft power creating a favorable condition for themselves where all other external actors, namely Turkey, Iran, US will have less room for maneuver. The NATO/US toehold is slipping while only business continues to remain. This has grown even more obvious.
    The Russians are willing to engage in business transactions and friendly relations with all parties (with the exception of Georgia) but wish to have complete oversight and they’re currently achieving this. The Chechen wars and volatile situation in the N. Caucasus has only hardened their resolve and vigilance to remain in control of the region. I also believe that despite FSB shortcomings in other regions outside of their near abroad, when it comes to the Caucasus and Asia Minor, they are quite “dialed in”. They have run circles around the CIA and have eyes and ears everywhere.
    Russia does not wish to take over Armenia, Azerbaijan or even Georgia (eventually there will be a regime change there that is more friendly to Russia but this will take a great deal of time), they only wish for all of those states to be interdependent on Russia. They court all parties in various degrees while undercutting their competitors. Please know I’m not necessarily defending or advocating for Russia but with respect to Armenia, I think its much more prudent to have good relations with Russia than with Turkey. Russia is at the very least magnanimous, while Turkey is indeed hostile.
     

  48. Robert,
     
    We all know your state is a coward. It rapes and murders the week and innocent. When confronted by power it kisses ass. That has been your whole history,.

  49. Joseph,

    I do agree with you on many aspects. I don’t agree that Turkey is the hostile nation. In addition, the classified agreements I mentioned earlier include Russia. The point is that attacking (being the agressor nation) another country is not conducive to a harmonic inter-regional relationship. We both know that no one is going to attack the others. It would be a losing situation. Sometimes, the person you believe (after many years of “coaching”) as being bad and your enemy, will indeed turn out to be your best. unjustly accused, friend! You’re bright, with a good head on your shoulders. I believe that you can see the forest through the trees. While others may scratch the heads, I know that you’ll understand the deeper meaning of what I write.  I’m hopeful.

  50. Robert … if I for one second believed you were not the Robert we know well on these pages, I would take your comment somewhat intelligent.. however, knowing your personality and how you view Armenia and Armenians in general, I have doubts and reservations about you and every one of your comments…

    That said.. if you believe Turkey is not hostile.. then you are living in your dream castle up in the space my friend.. are you seriously saying Turkey is not hostile? wow.. that is a first…and what harmonic inter-regional relationship are you talking about? You mean between ARmenia and Turkey in particular? Well the last time I checked, the TUrkish govt has been doing EVERYTHING to go against ANYTHING that can remotely normalize relationship between Armenia and Turkey.. hmmmmm.. where am I pulling this nonsense you may ask? well, it is all over Turkey’s face and all over the world.. i mean seriously… please take off your rosey colored glasses that turns Turkey into a beautiful entity..but then again when those glasses come off, i can’t guarentee you will view Turkey the way you do now.. unfortunately…..but then again I know your views when it comes to the Armenian Genocide and I know that every chance you get, you shout your Anti-Armenian thoughts and feelings without reservations… and more time than not, you blame AW for deleting or omitting your posts.. hmmmmmm…

    If you are that willing to show us you are wise and truly know what you are talking about, why don’t you write in a way that we, the ordinary folk, can understand better and maybe we will then truly grasp your wise words that have such hidden meanings and such enlightening reasonings that we except one person can’t see..

    Joseph jan.. inch klini, try to explain this wise man’s comments because it seems like he is trying to tell us something…

    Thanks 

  51. Dear gaytzag palandjian, relinquishing or exchanging of territory would need to be done under UN auspices. I wasn’t suggesting a rapid fire unilateral withdrawal. But no doubt its going to involve serious and painful concessions for both sides. But just consider this, as much as you may loathe to, think about how Erdogan successfully called the Greek Cypriots bluff in Cyprus. All of sudden the international consensus turned and it became apparent who stood for a peaceful negotiated settlement and who didn’t.

    Take it as you like but I my impression is that Armenia is too preoccupied with the wolf outside rather than being concerned about the bear that strolled in from the back door. The wolf howls but the bears already inside enjoying a coffee and making itself at home. Wake up and smell the coffee.

  52. Kudos Zeki, well put.  Turkey has never been a threat to Armenia, but Russia is too eager to exploit their Turkophobia to keep them as a vassal state, a loyal guradian of their vast colonial posessions in this improtant energy corridor.  Not much has changed in this relationship since the days of the last Czar one may say.  Look how much Armenians benefited for all this!

  53. Murat, “ Turkey has never been a threat to Armenia”? Who committed the genocide of Armenians, aliens from outer space? Whose lands have been stolen from an indigenous people, by whom? Who attacked the new democratic republic of Armenia in 1918? Was it not Ozal who threatened to “drop a couple of bombs” on the other side of the border? Who closed the border with Armenia? Who rejects establishing diplomatic relations with Armenia? Who imposed an economic blockade of Armenia? Who continues to suppress international recognition of genocide of Armenians by the Turks? If these are not hostile acts, how would you typify them? Friendly? Good-neighborly? What a joke you are, and you comments are, my God! I’d rather be with a fellow-Christian mighty Russia, then with a backward, murderer and hostile Turkey.

  54. ohhhhhhhh..look how murat jumped on the bandwagon when he read somehting that he liked from his fellow Turk and used it for his benefit..how cute…

    So what are you implying by “look how much Armenians benefited from all this”??? be more concise and precise..

    Thank you

  55. Turkey does not go for wars… ever since the WWI and WW2 a turkey does not get involved with wars:  lost in WWI and joined the WW2 ‘allies’ ONLY at the very last possible moment – in order to be with the ‘winning team’… Only sends some token military to actions now and then – for ‘show’. 
    A turkey only pursues Genocides since with Genocides the turks do not
    lose, actuality:  turks gain and steal and plunder and kill… it’s a one way pursuit of the turks’ goals – turks as winners of all the Genocides.  Too, a turkey does not sign and agree to agreements… not since they signed the Treaty of Sevres which is the only treaty which the Armenians signed as well – thus is binding the turk – who, of course, continues denials, PLOYs and more… turkish style ongoing/unending… deceitful.
    Manooshag

  56. A turkey does not ‘war’ only sends tokens to appear ‘involved’… A turkey does not sign
    agreements not since the Treaty of Sevres which is also signed by the Armenians thus is binding… but a turkey denies, as usual…
    A turkey fought/lost in WWI and was only in at the very end of WW2 to be in at the end and thus included as being on the ‘winning side’…
    A turkey policy for not signing agreements dates back to the Treaty of Sevres which the Armenians also signed – thus the Sevres agreement is binding – usual Turkey denials…
    A turkey denies Genocides, treaties, just pursues PLOYS daily, weekly, monthly, more to delay and distract dealings with all nations… ongoing/unending, childishly on/off.
    A turkey Genocides since this is their way to acquire and gain lands, just eliminate the
    peoples and take,steal tortures for what the turk seeks…
    As in Washington DC, now the turk has been funding and perpetrating the destruction of the memorium that was created by the American citizens for our President Woodrow Wilson… our United States of America – perpetrated via turkish style… thus wherever and whenever a turk shall pursue their turkic policies – even in the United States of America..
    – turkish mode:  a turkey does what a turkey wants… wherever, to whomever!
    Manooshag

  57. Attack, kill, burn, steal the wealth of others was the trend of the old times.From ancestors- Jenkis Khan and Lang Temoor,until the Sultans and Talat, Enver, Jamal and Behaddin. Spending looted money and oil-money for weapons,to destroy more places and people in this days makes it  clear that history is repeating it’s self, as blood thirsty heart of the new generation will maybe satisfy, and make them fill that they are winners of this old war. In fact the real winner of this war is neither of the two sides. The arms dealer is the one who enjoys all the fruits from this war. It will be wiseto use the money for weapons to develop infrastructures instead. this will improve the well-being of the people and in the long run bring peace and also eradicate poverty.and be more civilized work to do in my opinion.

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