The Armenian Weekly March 2014 Magazine:
Armenia’s Foreign Policy in Focus
In an interview with news.am in June 20121, Armenia’s deputy foreign minister, Shavarsh Kocharyan, defined the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict and ensured that regional security was Armenia’s top foreign policy priority for the coming five years. The creation of favorable external conditions for economic development, and work toward the prevention and condemnation of crimes against humanity, such as
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I am not convinced that Armenia has a non-complimentary foreign policy. It still cooperates very much with NATO, trades with Europe, and has excellent relations with the West. I also do not believe that the Customs Union means the end of Armenian economic relations with the West.
Unfortunately, the West has a mental illness known as Turkophilism, which is immune to psychotherapy, drugs, and common sense.
The oil and gas that Europe and Israel inject into their veins with hypodermic needles on a daily basis have also led to a dangerous addiction to Azerbaijan.
This is not our fault. Armenia should publicly slam the West more, and at least get it on the defensive. Leaks by the Foreign Ministry would be a good idea. I don’t see why, for example, there are not demonstrations in front of the American embassy in Yerevan. The US clearly supports the worst opposition forces in Syria and could not care less if Kessab is destroyed and its inhabitants sent to Der Zor to die. Slam the West in all sorts of ways. Make it look really bad.
Agree 100%. I’d alos like to add that Armenia will get much more mileage out of the “West” by not being its supplicant.
“when addressing the analysis of Armenia’s foreign policy from a normative perspective in terms of “what to do?” and aiming for a broad national consensus-building objective, neither the democratic imperative nor the engagement of the diaspora should be overlooked”
Right on point. As I have stated often, democracy is critical for Armenia’s success in foreign affairs. This is demonstrated by Armenia’s recent abrogation of sovereignty to Russia and the regime’s foreign policy blunders, including the infamous UN vote against the Crimea resolution. Armenia basically placed itself in the list of 11 rogue countries, against the West. This is a result of the government solely responding to the pressures of Russia instead of its own population (a consequence of lack of legitimacy). It’s also a result of brain-drain of talented potential professionals in the field of foreign affairs. The regime basically does what is in ITS interest, and it is in the regime’s interest to be a Russian dependency. As long as Armenia is not democratic, it will keep losing its independent voice, until it ceases to exist as a state.
“Armenian god” you will be ceased to exist, when Axerbaijani oil Sheikhdom is divided into three newly States: Talishesta, Avarestan, and Aran and the rest will join to Iran’s Azerbaijan!
The dearth of any tangible support promised by or provided by the West is partly what led Armenia into Russia’s arms. The EU doesn’t have much to offer Armenia, other than “EU values” (read: PIIGS and EU corruption scandal).
The “West” did nothing to pressure Turkey into accepting its obligation under the protocols. The protocols themselves were of course a western-inspired game against Armenia, where the Armenian government was naive enough to play along.
Until the EU/NATO take concrete steps to curb Azerbaijani revanchism in Artsakh, end the Turkish blockade and push them to stop funding al-Nusra terrorists against Armenians in Kessab, the West CANNOT be trusted.
Also a word of advice, Vahagn, be careful when using the word “regime” if you wish to be perceived as anything more than a NATO/Turkophile shill.
The EU can offer plenty to Armenia, including democracy and rule of law, two things that are essential for Armenia’s survival. With Russia, Armenians have instead received lack of progress, authoritarianism, destruction of Armenian families (by using Russia’s main export: prostitutes), and loss of Western Armenia.
Russia can hardly be trusted, as Russia has proven that it will abandon Armenia or even turn against Armenia when feels like it (emptying Western Armenia of Armenians by repeated invasions and withdrawals, letting the Genocide happen just a few miles from its troops, Brest-Litovsk 1918, partition of Armenia 1920, Kars 1921, Operation Ring 1991, aiding Elchibey’s attack at NKR in 1992, sale of weapons to Baku, and the list goes on.). Instead of blindly trusting Russia or anyone else, Armenia needs to rely on its people, which means not treating its people like dirt, which can only happen if Armenia becomes a democracy.
A word of advice to you, James. In an undemocratic state, Serge’s administration can only be described as a regime. Unless you want to be perceived as pro-Serge/Russophile shill, I suggest you be careful about defending them.
I am glad to hear that the majority of the commentaries are Positive. In the sense that what did the West offer us? The french are offering assistance to the Turks and the so called FSA to demolsih Kessab. The same french who ran away in the middle of the night and left us to fend for ourselves.
Well I think an aggressive stance against the west will not do any harm at all, in fact the Russians would love an aggressive partner. But our leaders in Yerevan are pacifists. In fact it is a good opportunity to escalate the tensions now and keep azebaijan busy while Turkey is busy. For Example; why don’t we annex Nakhichevan!
In all from the remarks coming out of Moscow, we are not very far away from war.
{“ But our leaders in Yerevan are pacifists.”}
Do you even have a clue of who RoA and NKR leaders are to make such an illogical statement ?
{“ For Example; why don’t we annex Nakhichevan!”}
Why don’t you yourself go and do it with a dozen of your friends.
Do you have any sons serving in the RoA or NKR military ?
Are you willing to see them shot full of holes or blown to bits ? Because that’s what happens in war.
Are you currently serving in the RoA or NKR military ?
Are you _yourself_ willing to die in battle ?
If you are, why don’t you go and enlist in RoA or NKR military and guard the borders: they need new men all the time.
Every couple of month or so we lose another young man to Turkbaijani snipers.
You are either a clueless keyboard warrior, or a Turkbaijani shill attempting to stir up trouble.
What is Yerevan doing cooperating with an imperial criminal organization like NATO who for the past twenty years has been blockading Armenia? What is Yerevan doing cooperating with a criminal organization who has been conspiring against Armenia’s strategic ally Russia and Armenia’s only good neighbor Iran? What is Yerevan doing cooperating with NATO against the Crimean people’s right to self-determination? What is Yerevan doing cooperating with NATO at a time when NATO is encouraging Al-Qaeda terrorists to exterminate Christians and Alawites in Syria?
Yerevan’s so-called “complimentary politics” made sense in the 1990s. Today, it’s a serious liability for Armenia. I hope to see Yerevan gradually move away from dealing with dangerous Western organizations like NATO, IMF and USAID. President Sargsyan’s announcement in early September, 2013 is a very encouraging sign.
Our Americanized zombies need to wake up from their EUrotic dreams and recognize that Armenia’s only hope for a better and more secure future is Russia. For Armenia, independence from Russia means dependence on Turkey. No Russia in the south Caucasus means no Armenia in the south Caucasus. There are no viable alternatives to the above calculus. The Russian nation is providing Armenia today with an opportunity Armenians have not had in well over one thousand years. Instead of doing the work of Western reptiles by disseminating anti-Russian propaganda throughout Armenian society, we Armenians need to wake up and use our God given talents to take full advantage of being a strategic partner of a superpower like Russia. Armenians can be in Russia what Jews are in the US. Western civilization is in decline. The East is rising. Wake up!
“Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.”
― Niccolò Machiavelli
RoA leaders (and the ‘brains’) are a lot smarter and far-looking than many of our compatriots give them credit for.
Since before Independence, under unbelievably challenging conditions, they have created and maintained, in good condition, two miracles: RoA and NKR.
Mistakes were made for sure. But given the incredibly limited resources they have had, and all the competing interests they have had to balance under unreal conditions, our RoA & NKR leaders and people have done Great.
The proof is right here: take a look.
http://armenianweekly.com/2013/10/22/armenia-fund-telethon-2013-a-new-route-to-security-and-prosperity/#prettyPhoto/0/
even our senior strategic partner, Russia, cooperated and wants to continue cooperating with NATO.
[‘Cold war rhetoric’: Moscow blasts NATO move to stop cooperation]
http://rt.com/news/russia-nato-cold-war-837/
{Neither NATO, nor Russia will benefit from suspended cooperation, the Russian Foreign Ministry has said. NATO’s announcement of freezing “all practical civilian and military” joint work is reminiscent of Cold War language, Moscow said.}
{….freezing “all practical civilian and military” joint work…”}
Of course ‘cooperate’ actually means ….“Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.”
Both sides know what ‘cooperate’ means, publicly pretend not to know, but continue playing the game for mutual benefit.
Same thing happened after South Ossetia war in 2008: West threw a tantrum for a few months, then everything went back to the same-old-same-old.
You are doing a really go job spreading Russian propaganda. I hope you are getting paid for that.
The primary reason for foreign policy failures in recent years is the lack of legitimacy of the current and previous governments. Though Kocharian’s government is credited with putting forward the complementary policy it is during his time that the foundations of complementarity started to erode due to his handing out of major energy assets and important enterprises to Russia, deepening our military dependence on Russia and succumbing to Russian pressure not to build a high capacity gas pipeline from Iran that would allow us to act as a regional power broker and share holder in energy distribution.
Illegitimate governments without popular support are weak domestically and hence have to rely on foreign powers to maintain your own power, be it Russia or the West. In that sense it is difficult to conduct a foreign policy as a sovereign state regardless of what that policy may be. That’s what we have been observing in the last 15 years that Armenia’s relatively substantial international clout as a winning country has steadily diminished over the years and we are here today finding ourselves in a sad state where a foreign leader visits our country and the head of state is not the first person he meets with… This essentially means that we are not regarded as a sovereign state, we are merely a territory run by an administrator and not a head of state. Under such conditions it hardly makes sense to talk about a foreign policy course. Our international conduct is now largely dictated by Russia. Hence the humiliating pro-Russian vote at the UN. It was just one example and more is to come.
The priority now is not to formulate this or that kind of foreign policy which in either way we are unable to conduct. The priority is regime change that will enable us to regain our lost sovereignty. Until and unless we have legitimate authorities we will continue suffering humiliating defeats and being treated as nothing more than a Russian province.
I say we should keep pace with world politics not just Nato,Cisto etc.There are small countries that have existed for a long time in sometimes hostile neighbourhoods.Take Switzerland.Why shouldn´t we think that wise.There are some good signs…Iran is moving towards more open societies and it may by and by become the ¨other¨small superpower in the area.
Moving into Nakhijevan ccan be speculated when the time is ripe.Which measn Kurds become more restless,great Turkey less supported ny old¨chums¨ and then why not.But cautiousness and patience should not be ruled out.It is a virtue we have luckily. Why worry so much to please this or that superpower.Like someone opined we must act aloof sort of so as the others would have to court us.A game great Turkey has `played for long.Now it should be our turn.However, we cannot imagine us to be even one half the power This neighbour is.As to Axerbeijan or Turkbeijan as Avery correctly addresses them.Understand please IT IS ONE NATION IN TWO STATES.PRETTY MUCH LIKE RA AND ARTSKAH.
Instead, we ought to PREPARE OURSELVES.BOTH IN RA/ARTSAKH,NK AND THE DIASPORA.Latter is where we are weak…
WE need to ssend our young to RA/Artsakh to train as military cadets with the conscripts there.Not just dancing around bonfires ain ¨ARI TUN¨ T shirts.There are many wake up calls here and in other threads.how about also insisting NOW that our Five major Diaspora Continent communities have one from ea permanent rep.s in Diaspora Ministry and cooperate further and deepr w/RA.
Take care
{“ Illegitimate governments without popular support”}
(Sassoon Kosian // April 3, 2014 at 7:31 pm //)
Obviously your ‘legitimate’ BarevaLeader who got 37% of the popular vote has ‘popular support’ right ?
A President who gets 58% vs 37% in an open, fair, democratic election by definition has popular support.
Presidential elections (Feb 2013):
RPA candidate 58%
Heritage candidate 37%
Yerevan municipal elections (May 2013):
RPA 56%
Prosperous 23%
Heritage 8.5% (Raffi Hovannisian party)
Community elections (March 2014):
RPA candidates won in 28 communities (out of about 40)
Prosperous won in 3.
ARF won in 1.
8 others had no party affiliation.
Clearly your concept of ‘popular support’ has no connection to reality.
As to ‘regime change’: somebody already tried that.
His name is Shant Harutyunyan.
He is currently in a mental asylum in Yerevan.
If convicted of the charges, he will spend 4-8 years in jail planning his next ‘regime’ (sic) change.
Give it a try: go to Yerevan and organize a ‘regime’ (sic) change: see how it works out for you.
As to “humiliating pro-Russian vote at the UN”: one of the most principled and courageous UN votes for RoA.
It would have been quite a trick for RoA to abstain or vote _for_ a so-called territorial integrity, and then try to argue that the so-called territorial integrity of Azerbaijan does not apply to NKR.
And what if the vote was pro-Russian: US compels her allies to vote with her at UN regularly, whether it is in their interest or not.
Russia needs moral support at this time re Crimea: Russia is a crucial, strategic ally* of RoA; there you go.
And when you guys complain about Russia buying this or that, do you also complain about:
– An American consortium buying the Vorotan Hydroelectric Complex.
– A French consortium buying the crown-jewel of Armenian brandy industry, Ararat Brandy, a national icon.
– The several gold, copper, etc mines owned and operated by Canadian, American, Irish, Chinese,…
—-
*in 1993, when Armenians finally broke the back of the nomadic invaders, and started liberating one occupied region after another, Turkey massed an army on RoA’s border, threatening to invade in support of their Turkic nomadic savages. I’ll let you remember which country was it that told the howling grey wolves to ‘Get!’. No, it wasn’t US, wasn’t France, wasn’t EU, wasn’t NATO,…
Goddamn right!!!!
Avery: “A President who gets 58% vs 37% in an open, fair, democratic election by definition has popular support.”
Ever heard about election fraud? http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/2013%20Election%20Statement-3.pdf
Generally speaking there is nothing wrong about selling assets to foreign companies if it’s done in a way that benefits your country. There is nothing beneficial to sell a disproportionate portion of your assets to one country because it creates heavy dependence. Well thought through, transparent and balanced deals with the right foreign companies could be very beneficial for Armenia. But that’s not at all what we see. Do you know that after the infamous gas deal late last year Russia has full control of the energy sector in Armenia? Putin gets to set not only the gas prices but also electricity prices in Armenia. And that humiliating deal is going to cripple Armenia for 40 years. Putin’s aggressive neo-imperialistic policies mean Russia is no longer a strategic partner. Armenia is swiftly shrinking into a vassal state only because it’s leadership has lacks the will and ability to resist Russia’s pressures.
Speaking of Vorotan, do you know that the proceeds of the sale never entered into the state budget? The government explanation has been that the money has been transferred to a “secret fund”. Yeah, the secret accounts of Serge Sargsyan so he has plenty of money to gample with…
Regarding Armenia’s UN vote and recognition of the Crimea referendum: in exchange for recognizing Crimea’s independence Armenia should have demanded that Russia recognize NKR’s independence. That’s what strategic partners would do, scratch each others back. But no, Russia for 20 years has avoided to do that and is obviously not prepared to do it now. There goes our “strategic ally”. Not to mention the backstabbing acts of selling deadly weapons to Azerbaijan.
Some of you guys need to wake up to the new reality that we are loosing statehood and blindly supporting the regime that is steering Armenia into disappearance is not really a good choice. Supporting Armenia today should mean supporting the people to gain the ability to self govern via fair elections and a transparent democratic process. We don’t need foreign powers to interfere to establish democracy. For that we have Diaspora which sadly today is being quite counter productive by supporting a corrupt and illegitimate regime.
Fraudulent National Assembly elections of 2012 analyzed and covered here http://www.pf-armenia.org/document/armenians-2012-parliamentary-election.
Allegedly ‘fraudulent’ in the _opinion_ of a Washington DC based Anti-Armenian NGO.
Supposedly ‘analyzed’ by a Washington DC based Anti-Armenian NGO.
{“ Ever heard about election fraud? “}
(Sassoon Kosian // April 6, 2014 at 2:22 pm //)
Yes, I have, Sassoon: I have also heard that 2+2=4 in Yerevan, in Los Angeles, in Beijing, on the Moon, on Mars,…
And I have heard that 58%-37%=21%.
A landslide win. Not even close.
And have you, Sasoon, heard of Disinformation ?
Have you heard of Foreign-funded NGOs, hundreds of them, working tirelessly to cause damage to RoA by manufacturing lies ?
As to PFA: if you have to rely on their disinformation to ‘prove’ there was alleged election fraud in RoA, then you have lost the argument even before it starts.
I will discuss PFA more below, but I do not rely on some organization that churns numbers and supposedly ‘proves’ something or other by statistics. I can see with my own eye, and I can add, subtract, divide, and multiply.
On April 9, 2013 out of a resident population of 1+ million of Yerevan, only about 8,000 showed up to protest.
That is a blip.
The silent majority, the 58%, stayed home and watched the circus.
Nowadays the BarevaLeader will be lucky to get more than a 100 people or so to show up to his dog & pony shows.
He is a proven loser.
And you actually think I am going to give credence to what some Washington D.C. based NGO tells me about the election, compared to several thousand election monitors, several dozen organizations from various neutral countries, exit polls matching election results ?
Voters of RoA gave 37% to Raffi Hovannisian not because he was 37% popular, but because Prosperous Party did not field a candidate.
Mr Hovannissian got the protest vote that would have gone to Prosperous.
This was confirmed by the Yerevan municipal election: Heritage party only got 8.5%
About the same percentage they regularly get in the Parliament.
As to PFA.
Not one of their doom & gloom prognostications about RoA has come true.
Not one.
Here is a great debunking of one of their reports, clearly showing PFA’s destructive, Anti-Armenian agenda.
http://asbarez.com/85471/an-abridged-analysis-of-the-pfa-and-its-recent-report/
All their other reports are similarly based on disinformation and manufactured ‘facts’.
As to Crimea, NKR, etc.
You wrote: “…in exchange for recognizing Crimea’s independence Armenia should have demanded that Russia recognize NKR’s independence.”
If that is your understanding of how the world of geopolitics works, then I am afraid you are the one who needs to “wake up”.
Russia recognizing NKR would mean zilch.
Russia, and only Russia, has recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia: the West could not care less.
Nothing has changed in South Ossetia or Abkhazia as a result of Russia’s recognition. Nothing.
The idea of recognition for NKR is to have Azerbaijan’s Western patrons and protectors recognize it: the reason that is so should be obvious.
And if you “wake up” and look below the obvious, you should be able to see that non-recognition at present is the best thing for both RoA and NKR.
I have discussed the non-issue with Russian weapons sales to Azerbaijan in a long post in another thread @AW.
You can read it, if you are interested.
Finally: despite some misguided individuals in (Western) Diaspora, the silent majority here supports the unquestionably legitimate, democratically elected governments of both RoA and NKR.
Pleasant dreams.